TIMKEN
Timken India Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TIMKEN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) trades at ₹3,343,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.
On the numbers, Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing expensive at 59.1× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TIMKEN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How TIMKEN ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- TIMKEN's market cap of 25,206 Cr ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TIMKEN's book value of ₹387 ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TIMKEN's promoter holding of 51.0% ranks in the 33rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TIMKEN's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01x is lower than 98% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold 3-year profit (PAT) growth or 3-year revenue growth figures for TIMKEN, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.
Is TIMKEN overvalued? TIMKEN P/E vs peers
TIMKEN trades at 59.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
TIMKEN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TIMKEN history (18%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIMKEN 2027 | ₹2,464 | ₹3,635 | ₹5,362 | +8% |
| TIMKEN 2028 | ₹2,238 | ₹3,943 | ₹6,946 | +18% |
| TIMKEN 2029 | ₹2,118 | ₹4,276 | ₹8,633 | +28% |
| TIMKEN 2030 | ₹2,085 | ₹4,639 | ₹10,319 | +38% |
| TIMKEN 2031 | ₹2,067 | ₹5,031 | ₹12,248 | +50% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TIMKEN goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TIMKEN
- TIMKEN's return on equity of 14.3% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TIMKEN's return on capital employed of 19.0% ranks in the 78th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,635 (+8%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹8,633.
The bear case & risks
- TIMKEN's P/E of 59.2x is lower than 21% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A steep 8.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,118.
TIMKEN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years TIMKEN compounded at 18%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,464-₹5,362, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TIMKEN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TIMKEN price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TIMKEN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TIMKEN price target & forecast page.
TIMKEN Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TIMKEN scores 4/8, mixed financial health.
TIMKEN MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TIMKEN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 29.68% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.65% | 3.4× |
| Groww | 29.72% | 3.4× |
| Dhan | 30.00% | 3.3× |
| Kotak Neo | 30.03% | 3.3× |
| Paytm Money | 29.82% | 3.4× |
| Pocketful | 30.00% | 3.3× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 29.65% | 3.4× |
| Bajaj Broking | 33.00% | 3.0× |
| Share India | 29.72% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the TIMKEN MTF page.
About Timken India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹25,173 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the TIMKEN Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Timken India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TIMKEN analysis, FAQs
Is Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) a good buy?
On the numbers, Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing expensive at 59.1× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TIMKEN overvalued or undervalued?
TIMKEN trades at 59.1× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the TIMKEN share price target for 2031?
TIMKEN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,031, with an 80% range of ₹2,067-₹12,248 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TIMKEN doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TIMKEN reaching ₹6,702 (2×) within 5 years is 34%.
What is the bull case for TIMKEN?
TIMKEN's return on equity of 14.3% ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. TIMKEN's return on capital employed of 19.0% ranks in the 78th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,635 (+8%).
What are the risks in TIMKEN?
TIMKEN's P/E of 59.2x is lower than 21% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 8.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.