TIMKEN
Timken India
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Timken India (TIMKEN) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TIMKEN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Timken India (TIMKEN) trades at ₹3,761,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100.
On the numbers, Timken India (TIMKEN) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing expensive at 68.1× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 32% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TIMKEN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is TIMKEN overvalued? TIMKEN P/E vs its sector
TIMKEN's P/E of 68.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.96% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
TIMKEN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TIMKEN history (-10%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIMKEN 2027 | ₹2,133 | ₹3,195 | ₹4,780 | -13% |
| TIMKEN 2028 | ₹1,585 | ₹2,750 | ₹4,898 | -25% |
| TIMKEN 2029 | ₹1,201 | ₹2,403 | ₹4,771 | -35% |
| TIMKEN 2030 | ₹934 | ₹2,085 | ₹4,649 | -43% |
| TIMKEN 2031 | ₹740 | ₹1,800 | ₹4,468 | -51% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TIMKEN goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TIMKEN
- A healthy 14.3% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (19.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹4,771.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 68.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 9.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 32% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,201.
TIMKEN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years TIMKEN compounded at -10%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,133–₹4,780, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TIMKEN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TIMKEN price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TIMKEN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TIMKEN price target & forecast page.
TIMKEN Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TIMKEN scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
TIMKEN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TIMKEN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 30.1% | 3.3× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 30.1% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.1% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the TIMKEN MTF page.
TIMKEN vs peers,sector comparison
About Timken India: sector, index & market-cap context
Timken India (TIMKEN) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹28,253 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the TIMKEN Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Timken India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TIMKEN analysis, FAQs
Is Timken India (TIMKEN) a good buy?
On the numbers, Timken India (TIMKEN) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing expensive at 68.1× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 32% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TIMKEN overvalued or undervalued?
TIMKEN trades at 68.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the TIMKEN share price target for 2031?
TIMKEN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,800, with an 80% range of ₹740–₹4,468 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TIMKEN doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TIMKEN reaching ₹7,379 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for TIMKEN?
A healthy 14.3% return on equity. Strong ROCE (19.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in TIMKEN?
A rich 68.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 9.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 32% chance of finishing above today's price.