TMB
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TMB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.
On the numbers, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing a 77% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TMB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TMB history (25%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMB 2027 | ₹672 | ₹968 | ₹1,392 | +24% |
| TMB 2028 | ₹714 | ₹1,192 | ₹1,994 | +53% |
| TMB 2029 | ₹783 | ₹1,456 | ₹2,731 | +87% |
| TMB 2030 | ₹875 | ₹1,801 | ₹3,693 | +131% |
| TMB 2031 | ₹995 | ₹2,218 | ₹4,978 | +184% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TMB goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TMB
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 77% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹968 (+24%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,731.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹783.
TMB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years TMB compounded at 25%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹672–₹1,392, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TMB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TMB price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TMB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TMB price target & forecast page.
TMB MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TMB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 30.9% | 3.2× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.9% | 3.2× |
Compare every broker on the TMB MTF page.
TMB vs peers,sector comparison
About Tamilnad Mercantile Bank: sector, index & market-cap context
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) is an NSE-listed company.
How the TMB Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tamilnad Mercantile Bank's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TMB analysis, FAQs
Is Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) a good buy?
On the numbers, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing a 77% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TMB overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for TMB are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the TMB share price target for 2031?
TMB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,218, with an 80% range of ₹995–₹4,978 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TMB doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TMB reaching ₹1,561 (2×) within 5 years is 72%.
What is the bull case for TMB?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 77% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹968 (+24%).
What are the risks in TMB?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.