TMPV
Tata Motors
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Tata Motors (TMPV) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TMPV a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Tata Motors (TMPV) trades at ₹362,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, Tata Motors (TMPV) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 1.5× earnings, ROE of 75.7%, a 10% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TMPV fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is TMPV overvalued? TMPV P/E vs its sector
TMPV's P/E of 1.5× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.83% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
TMPV share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TMPV history (-50%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMPV 2027 | ₹107 | ₹196 | ₹362 | -45% |
| TMPV 2028 | ₹45 | ₹106 | ₹259 | -71% |
| TMPV 2029 | ₹20 | ₹57 | ₹170 | -84% |
| TMPV 2030 | ₹9 | ₹31 | ₹107 | -91% |
| TMPV 2031 | ₹4 | ₹17 | ₹69 | -95% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TMPV goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TMPV
- Trades at just 1.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 1.19×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- High return on equity (75.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹170.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 10% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹20.
TMPV volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years TMPV compounded at -50%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹107–₹362, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TMPV price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TMPV price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TMPV hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TMPV price target & forecast page.
TMPV Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TMPV scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
TMPV MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TMPV with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.8% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 26.2% | 3.8× |
| Groww | 26.2% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 23.8% | 4.2× |
Compare every broker on the TMPV MTF page.
TMPV vs peers,sector comparison
About Tata Motors: sector, index & market-cap context
Tata Motors (TMPV) is a large-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.33L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the TMPV Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tata Motors's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TMPV analysis, FAQs
Is Tata Motors (TMPV) a good buy?
On the numbers, Tata Motors (TMPV) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 1.5× earnings, ROE of 75.7%, a 10% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TMPV overvalued or undervalued?
TMPV trades at 1.5× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the TMPV share price target for 2031?
TMPV's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹17, with an 80% range of ₹4–₹69 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TMPV doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TMPV reaching ₹719 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for TMPV?
Trades at just 1.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.19×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. High return on equity (75.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
What are the risks in TMPV?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 10% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.