TNPL
Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited (TNPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TNPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited (TNPL) trades at ₹157,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.
On the numbers, Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited (TNPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.4× earnings, ROE of 11.2%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TNPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How TNPL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- TNPL's market cap of 1,084 Cr ranks in the 40th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TNPL's book value of ₹335 ranks in the 83rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TNPL's promoter holding of 35.3% ranks in the 12th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TNPL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -14.0% ranks in the 16th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TNPL's 3-year revenue growth of -4.0% ranks in the 17th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- TNPL's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70x is lower than 24% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is TNPL overvalued? TNPL P/E vs peers
TNPL trades at 4.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
TNPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of TNPL history (-7%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNPL 2027 | ₹100 | ₹157 | ₹246 | +0% |
| TNPL 2028 | ₹85 | ₹158 | ₹294 | +1% |
| TNPL 2029 | ₹74 | ₹158 | ₹340 | +1% |
| TNPL 2030 | ₹67 | ₹159 | ₹379 | +2% |
| TNPL 2031 | ₹61 | ₹160 | ₹421 | +2% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TNPL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TNPL
- TNPL's P/E of 4.4x is lower than 95% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Low price-to-book of 0.47×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹340.
The bear case & risks
- TNPL's return on equity of 11.2% ranks in the 56th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹74.
TNPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years TNPL compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹100-₹246, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TNPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TNPL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TNPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TNPL price target & forecast page.
TNPL Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. TNPL scores 4/8, mixed financial health.
TNPL MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TNPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Zerodha | 30.25% | 3.3× |
| Groww | 30.33% | 3.3× |
| Dhan | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Kotak Neo | 100.00% | 1.0× |
| Paytm Money | 30.40% | 3.3× |
| PocketfulCHEAPEST | 30.14% | 3.3× |
| Anand Rathi | 30.25% | 3.3× |
| Bajaj Broking | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Share India | 30.33% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the TNPL MTF page.
About Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited (TNPL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,084 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the TNPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TNPL analysis, FAQs
Is Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited (TNPL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Limited (TNPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.4× earnings, ROE of 11.2%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TNPL overvalued or undervalued?
TNPL trades at 4.4× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the TNPL share price target for 2031?
TNPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹160, with an 80% range of ₹61-₹421 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TNPL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TNPL reaching ₹313 (2×) within 5 years is 19%.
What is the bull case for TNPL?
TNPL's P/E of 4.4x is lower than 95% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 0.47×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in TNPL?
TNPL's return on equity of 11.2% ranks in the 56th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.