Case study

TRENT

Trent

Tread carefully1y model -31.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Trent (TRENT) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TRENT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Trent (TRENT) trades at ₹3,181,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, Trent (TRENT) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 98.3× earnings, ROE of 27.7%, a 22% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TRENT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.70L Cr
Current price
₹3,181
P/E ratio
98.3×
P/B ratio
24.28×
Book value
₹131
Dividend yield
0.13%
ROCE
28.3%
ROE
27.7%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is TRENT overvalued? TRENT P/E vs its Retail

TRENT's P/E of 98.3× sits above the Retail peer median of 17.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.13% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.81%.

TRENT P/E
98.3×
Peer median P/E
17.9×
TRENT div yield
0.13%
Peer median yield
0.81%

TRENT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TRENT history (-27%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TRENT 2027₹1,202₹2,210₹4,090-31%
TRENT 2028₹636₹1,506₹3,572-53%
TRENT 2029₹356₹1,028₹3,036-68%
TRENT 2030₹208₹717₹2,369-78%
TRENT 2031₹124₹489₹1,929-85%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TRENT goes up, or doubles?

22%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
4%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹6,412 within 5 years

The bull case for TRENT

  • High return on equity (27.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (28.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,036.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 98.3× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 24.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 22% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹356.

TRENT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years TRENT compounded at -27%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,202₹4,090, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TRENT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
31.1%
80% range₹1,202–₹4,090
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
67.9%
80% range₹356–₹3,036
P(price ↑)9%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
84.7%
80% range₹124–₹1,929
P(price ↑)4%
P(price 2×)1%

TRENT price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TRENT simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TRENT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TRENT price target & forecast page.

TRENT Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TRENT scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

TRENT MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TRENT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox32.2%3.1×
Zerodha27.4%3.6×
Groww27.4%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST25.2%4.0×

Compare every broker on the TRENT MTF page.

Which ace investors hold TRENT?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

TRENT vs peers,Retail comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
TRENT (this stock)98.3×0.13%₹1.70L Cr
DMART95.1×0.00%₹2.83L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr

About Trent: sector, index & market-cap context

Trent (TRENT) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Retail sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.70L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the TRENT Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Trent's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TRENT analysis, FAQs

Is Trent (TRENT) a good buy?

On the numbers, Trent (TRENT) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 98.3× earnings, ROE of 27.7%, a 22% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TRENT overvalued or undervalued?

TRENT trades at 98.3× earnings versus a peer median of 17.9×, so it screens richer than its Retail peers.

What is the TRENT share price target for 2031?

TRENT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹489, with an 80% range of ₹124₹1,929 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TRENT doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TRENT reaching ₹6,412 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for TRENT?

High return on equity (27.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (28.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in TRENT?

A rich 98.3× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 24.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 22% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on TRENT