Case study

TRIDENT

Trident

Tread carefully1y model -22.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Trident (TRIDENT) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is TRIDENT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Trident (TRIDENT) trades at ₹26,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Trident (TRIDENT) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 35.3× earnings, ROE of 8.0%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

TRIDENT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹13,316 Cr
Current price
₹26
P/E ratio
35.3×
P/B ratio
2.79×
Book value
₹9
Dividend yield
1.91%
ROCE
9.9%
ROE
8.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is TRIDENT overvalued? TRIDENT P/E vs its sector

TRIDENT's P/E of 35.3× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.91% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

TRIDENT P/E
35.3×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
TRIDENT div yield
1.91%
Peer median yield
1.67%

TRIDENT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TRIDENT history (-20%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
TRIDENT 2027₹13₹20₹30-23%
TRIDENT 2028₹9₹15₹28-40%
TRIDENT 2029₹6₹12₹25-53%
TRIDENT 2030₹4₹9₹22-64%
TRIDENT 2031₹3₹7₹19-72%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability TRIDENT goes up, or doubles?

21%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
4%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹52 within 5 years

The bull case for TRIDENT

  • Trident is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹25.

The bear case & risks

  • At 35.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 8.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹6.

TRIDENT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years TRIDENT compounded at -20%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹13₹30, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

TRIDENT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
22.7%
80% range₹13–₹30
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
53.4%
80% range₹6–₹25
P(price ↑)9%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
71.8%
80% range₹3–₹19
P(price ↑)4%
P(price 2×)0%

TRIDENT price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
TRIDENT simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds TRIDENT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the TRIDENT price target & forecast page.

TRIDENT Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TRIDENT scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

TRIDENT MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TRIDENT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST31.2%3.2×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.2%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.2%3.2×

Compare every broker on the TRIDENT MTF page.

TRIDENT vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
TRIDENT (this stock)35.3×1.91%₹13,316 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Trident: sector, index & market-cap context

Trident (TRIDENT) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹13,316 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the TRIDENT Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Trident's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

TRIDENT analysis, FAQs

Is Trident (TRIDENT) a good buy?

On the numbers, Trident (TRIDENT) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 35.3× earnings, ROE of 8.0%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is TRIDENT overvalued or undervalued?

TRIDENT trades at 35.3× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the TRIDENT share price target for 2031?

TRIDENT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹7, with an 80% range of ₹3₹19 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability TRIDENT doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of TRIDENT reaching ₹52 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for TRIDENT?

Trident is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in TRIDENT?

At 35.3× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 8.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on TRIDENT