UBL
United Breweries
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
United Breweries (UBL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is UBL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
United Breweries (UBL) trades at ₹1,340,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100.
On the numbers, United Breweries (UBL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 94.7× earnings, ROE of 8.4%, a 14% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
UBL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is UBL overvalued? UBL P/E vs its sector
UBL's P/E of 94.7× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.75% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
UBL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of UBL history (-22%/yr drift, 23%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBL 2027 | ₹778 | ₹1,045 | ₹1,406 | -22% |
| UBL 2028 | ₹536 | ₹811 | ₹1,242 | -40% |
| UBL 2029 | ₹378 | ₹629 | ₹1,057 | -53% |
| UBL 2030 | ₹269 | ₹486 | ₹884 | -64% |
| UBL 2031 | ₹194 | ₹381 | ₹733 | -72% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability UBL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for UBL
- Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,057.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 94.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 8.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 14% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹378.
UBL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years UBL compounded at -22%/year with annualized volatility of 23%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹778–₹1,406, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
UBL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
UBL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds UBL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the UBL price target & forecast page.
UBL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. UBL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
UBL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy UBL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 26.6% | 3.8× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 26.6% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 26.6% | 3.8× |
Compare every broker on the UBL MTF page.
Which ace investors hold UBL?
Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):
UBL vs peers,sector comparison
About United Breweries: sector, index & market-cap context
United Breweries (UBL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹35,429 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the UBL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of United Breweries's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
UBL analysis, FAQs
Is United Breweries (UBL) a good buy?
On the numbers, United Breweries (UBL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 94.7× earnings, ROE of 8.4%, a 14% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is UBL overvalued or undervalued?
UBL trades at 94.7× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the UBL share price target for 2031?
UBL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹381, with an 80% range of ₹194–₹733 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability UBL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of UBL reaching ₹2,684 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for UBL?
Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in UBL?
A rich 94.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 8.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 14% chance of finishing above today's price.