UCAL
Ucal Ltd
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Ucal Ltd (UCAL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
What the numbers say about UCAL, and the method behind each one.
Ucal Ltd (UCAL) trades at ₹140,on the numbers it screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100.
On the numbers, Ucal Ltd (UCAL) screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100, weighing expensive at 147.0× earnings, ROE of -5.4%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
UCAL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How UCAL ranks against the 2,982 companies in our screener
- UCAL's market cap of 311 Cr ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
- UCAL's book value of ₹147 ranks in the 69th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
- UCAL's promoter holding of 70.3% ranks in the 73rd percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
- UCAL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 2.0% ranks in the 29th percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
- UCAL's 3-year revenue growth of 1.0% ranks in the 23rd percentile of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
- UCAL's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57x is lower than 34% of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
Is UCAL overvalued? UCAL P/E vs peers
UCAL trades at 147.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
UCAL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of UCAL history (0%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCAL 2027 | ₹79 | ₹139 | ₹243 | -1% |
| UCAL 2028 | ₹62 | ₹137 | ₹303 | -2% |
| UCAL 2029 | ₹52 | ₹136 | ₹358 | -3% |
| UCAL 2030 | ₹44 | ₹135 | ₹408 | -4% |
| UCAL 2031 | ₹38 | ₹133 | ₹470 | -5% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability UCAL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for UCAL
- Low price-to-book of 0.95×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹358.
The bear case & risks
- UCAL's P/E of 147.0x is lower than 6% of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹52.
UCAL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years UCAL compounded at 0%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹79-₹243, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
UCAL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
UCAL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds UCAL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the UCAL price target & forecast page.
UCAL Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. UCAL scores 4/8, mixed financial health.
About Ucal Ltd: sector, index & market-cap context
Ucal Ltd (UCAL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹311 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the UCAL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ucal Ltd's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
UCAL analysis, FAQs
Is Ucal Ltd (UCAL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Ucal Ltd (UCAL) screens weak, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100, weighing expensive at 147.0× earnings, ROE of -5.4%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is UCAL overvalued or undervalued?
UCAL trades at 147.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the UCAL share price target for 2031?
UCAL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹133, with an 80% range of ₹38-₹470 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability UCAL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of UCAL reaching ₹280 (2×) within 5 years is 23%.
What is the bull case for UCAL?
Low price-to-book of 0.95×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in UCAL?
UCAL's P/E of 147.0x is lower than 6% of the 2,982 NSE companies in our screener, as of 14 Aug 2026.
More on UCAL
For information and education only. Downstox is a data and analytics platform, not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Any scores, ranks, targets or scenarios are model estimates shown with their method, not forecasts or assured outcomes. Markets carry risk; do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.