Case study

UEL

Ujaas Energy Ltd

High-risk on the numbers1y model -3.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

28Score

Ujaas Energy Ltd (UEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

What the numbers say about UEL, and the method behind each one.

Ujaas Energy Ltd (UEL) trades at ₹246,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.

On the numbers, Ujaas Energy Ltd (UEL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 193.0× earnings, ROE of 8.0%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

UEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,207 Cr
Current price
₹246
P/E ratio
193.0×
P/B ratio
143.86×
Book value
₹2
ROCE
10.6%
ROE
8.0%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How UEL ranks against the 2,979 companies in our screener

Is UEL overvalued? UEL P/E vs peers

UEL trades at 193.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

UEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of UEL history (4%/yr drift, 52%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
UEL 2027₹115₹226₹445-4%
UEL 2028₹87₹218₹545-7%
UEL 2029₹67₹210₹657-10%
UEL 2030₹55₹203₹746-13%
UEL 2031₹45₹195₹846-17%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability UEL goes up, or doubles?

47%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
44%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
22%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹468 within 5 years

The bull case for UEL

  • Ujaas Energy Ltd is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹657.

The bear case & risks

  • UEL's P/E of 193.0x is lower than 4% of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 143.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • UEL's return on equity of 8.0% ranks in the 38th percentile of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹67.

UEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years UEL compounded at 4%/year with annualized volatility of 52%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹115-₹445, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

UEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.6%
80% range₹115-₹445
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
10.3%
80% range₹67-₹657
P(price ↑)45%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
16.6%
80% range₹45-₹846
P(price ↑)44%
P(price 2×)22%

UEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
UEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds UEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the UEL price target & forecast page.

UEL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. UEL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

About Ujaas Energy Ltd: sector, index & market-cap context

Ujaas Energy Ltd (UEL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,207 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the UEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ujaas Energy Ltd's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

UEL analysis, FAQs

Is Ujaas Energy Ltd (UEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Ujaas Energy Ltd (UEL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 193.0× earnings, ROE of 8.0%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is UEL overvalued or undervalued?

UEL trades at 193.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the UEL share price target for 2031?

UEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹195, with an 80% range of ₹45-₹846 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability UEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of UEL reaching ₹468 (2×) within 5 years is 22%.

What is the bull case for UEL?

Ujaas Energy Ltd is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in UEL?

UEL's P/E of 193.0x is lower than 4% of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026. A steep 143.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. UEL's return on equity of 8.0% ranks in the 38th percentile of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026.

More on UEL

For information and education only. Downstox is a data and analytics platform, not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Any scores, ranks, targets or scenarios are model estimates shown with their method, not forecasts or assured outcomes. Markets carry risk; do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.