UGARSUGAR
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is UGARSUGAR a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) trades at ₹45,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100.
On the numbers, The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.4× earnings, ROE of 60.2%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
UGARSUGAR fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How UGARSUGAR ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- UGARSUGAR's market cap of 506 Cr ranks in the 28th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UGARSUGAR's book value of ₹15 ranks in the 16th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UGARSUGAR's promoter holding of 44.5% ranks in the 22nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UGARSUGAR's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 96.0% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UGARSUGAR's 3-year revenue growth of 27.0% ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UGARSUGAR's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.31x is lower than 9% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is UGARSUGAR overvalued? UGARSUGAR P/E vs peers
UGARSUGAR trades at 7.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
UGARSUGAR share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of UGARSUGAR history (-1%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGARSUGAR 2027 | ₹29 | ₹47 | ₹76 | +5% |
| UGARSUGAR 2028 | ₹25 | ₹50 | ₹98 | +11% |
| UGARSUGAR 2029 | ₹23 | ₹52 | ₹120 | +16% |
| UGARSUGAR 2030 | ₹21 | ₹55 | ₹143 | +22% |
| UGARSUGAR 2031 | ₹20 | ₹58 | ₹165 | +28% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability UGARSUGAR goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for UGARSUGAR
- UGARSUGAR's P/E of 7.4x is lower than 91% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UGARSUGAR's return on equity of 60.2% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UGARSUGAR's return on capital employed of 27.3% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹120.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹23.
UGARSUGAR volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years UGARSUGAR compounded at -1%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹29-₹76, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
UGARSUGAR price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
UGARSUGAR price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds UGARSUGAR hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the UGARSUGAR price target & forecast page.
UGARSUGAR Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. UGARSUGAR scores 5/8, mixed financial health.
UGARSUGAR MTF margin & leverage across 2 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy UGARSUGAR with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 2 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Kotak Neo | 100.00% | 1.0× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 32.49% | 3.1× |
Compare every broker on the UGARSUGAR MTF page.
About The Ugar Sugar Works Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹506 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the UGARSUGAR Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
UGARSUGAR analysis, FAQs
Is The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) a good buy?
On the numbers, The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (UGARSUGAR) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.4× earnings, ROE of 60.2%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is UGARSUGAR overvalued or undervalued?
UGARSUGAR trades at 7.4× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the UGARSUGAR share price target for 2031?
UGARSUGAR's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹58, with an 80% range of ₹20-₹165 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability UGARSUGAR doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of UGARSUGAR reaching ₹90 (2×) within 5 years is 30%.
What is the bull case for UGARSUGAR?
UGARSUGAR's P/E of 7.4x is lower than 91% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. UGARSUGAR's return on equity of 60.2% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. UGARSUGAR's return on capital employed of 27.3% ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in UGARSUGAR?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.