Case study

ULTRAMAR

Ultramarine & Pigments Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +3.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

57Score

Ultramarine & Pigments Limited (ULTRAMAR) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ULTRAMAR a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Ultramarine & Pigments Limited (ULTRAMAR) trades at ₹411,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Ultramarine & Pigments Limited (ULTRAMAR) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.3× earnings, ROE of 8.6%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ULTRAMAR fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,199 Cr
Current price
₹411
P/E ratio
13.3×
P/B ratio
1.38×
Book value
₹298
Dividend yield
1.46%
ROCE
10.8%
ROE
8.6%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How ULTRAMAR ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is ULTRAMAR overvalued? ULTRAMAR P/E vs peers

ULTRAMAR trades at 13.3× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

ULTRAMAR share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ULTRAMAR history (11%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ULTRAMAR 2027₹263₹423₹681+3%
ULTRAMAR 2028₹222₹437₹860+7%
ULTRAMAR 2029₹200₹451₹1,017+10%
ULTRAMAR 2030₹182₹466₹1,194+14%
ULTRAMAR 2031₹168₹481₹1,375+17%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ULTRAMAR goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹820 within 5 years

The bull case for ULTRAMAR

  • ULTRAMAR's P/E of 13.3x is lower than 79% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.38×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,017.

The bear case & risks

  • ULTRAMAR's return on equity of 8.6% ranks in the 42nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹200.

ULTRAMAR volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years ULTRAMAR compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹263-₹681, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ULTRAMAR price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.2%
80% range₹263-₹681
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
10.0%
80% range₹200-₹1,017
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
17.2%
80% range₹168-₹1,375
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)26%

ULTRAMAR price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ULTRAMAR simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ULTRAMAR hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ULTRAMAR price target & forecast page.

ULTRAMAR Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ULTRAMAR scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

ULTRAMAR MTF margin & leverage across 4 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ULTRAMAR with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 4 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Groww31.85%3.1×
Pocketful50.00%2.0×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST31.82%3.1×

Compare every broker on the ULTRAMAR MTF page.

About Ultramarine & Pigments Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Ultramarine & Pigments Limited (ULTRAMAR) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,199 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ULTRAMAR Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ultramarine & Pigments Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ULTRAMAR analysis, FAQs

Is Ultramarine & Pigments Limited (ULTRAMAR) a good buy?

On the numbers, Ultramarine & Pigments Limited (ULTRAMAR) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.3× earnings, ROE of 8.6%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ULTRAMAR overvalued or undervalued?

ULTRAMAR trades at 13.3× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the ULTRAMAR share price target for 2031?

ULTRAMAR's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹481, with an 80% range of ₹168-₹1,375 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ULTRAMAR doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ULTRAMAR reaching ₹820 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for ULTRAMAR?

ULTRAMAR's P/E of 13.3x is lower than 79% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.38×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in ULTRAMAR?

ULTRAMAR's return on equity of 8.6% ranks in the 42nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on ULTRAMAR