UPL
UPL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
UPL (UPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is UPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
UPL (UPL) trades at ₹606,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100.
On the numbers, UPL (UPL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 27.1× earnings, ROE of 5.9%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
UPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is UPL overvalued? UPL P/E vs its sector
UPL's P/E of 27.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.99% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
UPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of UPL history (3%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPL 2027 | ₹413 | ₹602 | ₹885 | -1% |
| UPL 2028 | ₹343 | ₹591 | ₹1,016 | -3% |
| UPL 2029 | ₹303 | ₹579 | ₹1,136 | -5% |
| UPL 2030 | ₹267 | ₹575 | ₹1,215 | -6% |
| UPL 2031 | ₹242 | ₹565 | ₹1,324 | -7% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability UPL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for UPL
- Low price-to-book of 1.47×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,136.
The bear case & risks
- At 27.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Return on equity is a soft 5.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹303.
UPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years UPL compounded at 3%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹413–₹885, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
UPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
UPL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds UPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the UPL price target & forecast page.
UPL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. UPL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
UPL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy UPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.8% | 3.2× |
| Zerodha | 26.3% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 24.0% | 4.2× |
Compare every broker on the UPL MTF page.
UPL vs peers,sector comparison
About UPL: sector, index & market-cap context
UPL (UPL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹51,187 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the UPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of UPL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
UPL analysis, FAQs
Is UPL (UPL) a good buy?
On the numbers, UPL (UPL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 27.1× earnings, ROE of 5.9%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is UPL overvalued or undervalued?
UPL trades at 27.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the UPL share price target for 2031?
UPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹565, with an 80% range of ₹242–₹1,324 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability UPL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of UPL reaching ₹1,217 (2×) within 5 years is 12%.
What is the bull case for UPL?
Low price-to-book of 1.47×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in UPL?
At 27.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 5.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.