UPL
UPL LIMITED
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UPL LIMITED (UPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is UPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
UPL LIMITED (UPL) trades at ₹573,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.
On the numbers, UPL LIMITED (UPL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.5× earnings, ROE of 5.6%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
UPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How UPL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- UPL's market cap of 48,356 Cr ranks in the 91st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UPL's book value of ₹411 ranks in the 87th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UPL's promoter holding of 33.5% ranks in the 10th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UPL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -21.0% ranks in the 11th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UPL's 3-year revenue growth of -1.0% ranks in the 22nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- UPL's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68x is lower than 25% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is UPL overvalued? UPL P/E vs peers
UPL trades at 24.5× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
UPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of UPL history (3%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPL 2027 | ₹404 | ₹600 | ₹890 | +5% |
| UPL 2028 | ₹362 | ₹628 | ₹1,090 | +10% |
| UPL 2029 | ₹332 | ₹657 | ₹1,303 | +15% |
| UPL 2030 | ₹315 | ₹688 | ₹1,505 | +20% |
| UPL 2031 | ₹299 | ₹721 | ₹1,734 | +26% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability UPL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for UPL
- UPL's P/E of 24.5x is lower than 54% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Low price-to-book of 1.39×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,303.
The bear case & risks
- UPL's return on equity of 5.6% ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹332.
UPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years UPL compounded at 3%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹404-₹890, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
UPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
UPL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds UPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the UPL price target & forecast page.
UPL Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. UPL scores 4/8, mixed financial health.
UPL MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy UPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 27.39% | 3.7× |
| Zerodha | 26.30% | 3.8× |
| Groww | 26.35% | 3.8× |
| Dhan | 24.00% | 4.2× |
| Kotak Neo | 25.00% | 4.0× |
| Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST | 23.95% | 4.2× |
| Pocketful | 30.88% | 3.2× |
| Fyers | 31.25% | 3.2× |
| Anand Rathi | 30.85% | 3.2× |
| Bajaj Broking | 25.00% | 4.0× |
| Share India | 30.65% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the UPL MTF page.
About UPL LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context
UPL LIMITED (UPL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹48,356 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the UPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of UPL LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
UPL analysis, FAQs
Is UPL LIMITED (UPL) a good buy?
On the numbers, UPL LIMITED (UPL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.5× earnings, ROE of 5.6%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is UPL overvalued or undervalued?
UPL trades at 24.5× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the UPL share price target for 2031?
UPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹721, with an 80% range of ₹299-₹1,734 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability UPL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of UPL reaching ₹1,146 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.
What is the bull case for UPL?
UPL's P/E of 24.5x is lower than 54% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.39×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in UPL?
UPL's return on equity of 5.6% ranks in the 32nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.