Case study

URBANCO

URBAN COMPANY LIMITED

Mixed signals1y model -35.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

URBAN COMPANY LIMITED (URBANCO) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is URBANCO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

URBAN COMPANY LIMITED (URBANCO) trades at ₹137,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100.

On the numbers, URBAN COMPANY LIMITED (URBANCO) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.9× earnings, ROE of -12.0%, a 16% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

URBANCO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹21,141 Cr
Current price
₹137
P/E ratio
13.9×
P/B ratio
9.86×
Book value
₹14
ROCE
-7.8%
ROE
-12.0%
Piotroski F-Score
1/9

Is URBANCO overvalued? URBANCO P/E vs its sector

URBANCO's P/E of 13.9× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers.

URBANCO P/E
13.9×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
Peer median yield
1.66%

URBANCO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 0.7y of URBANCO history (-33%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
URBANCO 2027₹48₹84₹150-35%
URBANCO 2028₹25₹55₹124-58%
URBANCO 2029₹14₹35₹97-73%
URBANCO 2030₹7₹23₹73-82%
URBANCO 2031₹4₹15₹54-88%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability URBANCO goes up, or doubles?

16%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
1%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹260 within 5 years

The bull case for URBANCO

  • Trades at just 13.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹97.

The bear case & risks

  • A steep 9.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 16% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹14.

URBANCO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 0.7 years URBANCO compounded at -33%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹48₹150, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

URBANCO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 0.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
35.5%
80% range₹48–₹150
P(price ↑)16%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
72.9%
80% range₹14–₹97
P(price ↑)5%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
88.5%
80% range₹4–₹54
P(price ↑)1%
P(price 2×)0%

URBANCO price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
URBANCO simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds URBANCO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the URBANCO price target & forecast page.

URBANCO Piotroski F-Score: 1/9, how financially strong is it?

1/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. URBANCO scores 1/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

URBANCO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy URBANCO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×

Compare every broker on the URBANCO MTF page.

URBANCO vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
URBANCO (this stock)13.9×₹21,141 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About URBAN COMPANY LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

URBAN COMPANY LIMITED (URBANCO) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹21,141 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the URBANCO Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of URBAN COMPANY LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

URBANCO analysis, FAQs

Is URBAN COMPANY LIMITED (URBANCO) a good buy?

On the numbers, URBAN COMPANY LIMITED (URBANCO) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.9× earnings, ROE of -12.0%, a 16% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is URBANCO overvalued or undervalued?

URBANCO trades at 13.9× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the URBANCO share price target for 2031?

URBANCO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹15, with an 80% range of ₹4₹54 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability URBANCO doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of URBANCO reaching ₹260 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for URBANCO?

Trades at just 13.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.

What are the risks in URBANCO?

A steep 9.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. A low Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 16% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on URBANCO