Case study

UTTAMSUGAR

Uttam Sugar Mills Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +3.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

65Score

Uttam Sugar Mills Limited (UTTAMSUGAR) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is UTTAMSUGAR a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Uttam Sugar Mills Limited (UTTAMSUGAR) trades at ₹250,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.

On the numbers, Uttam Sugar Mills Limited (UTTAMSUGAR) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.4× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

UTTAMSUGAR fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹956 Cr
Current price
₹250
P/E ratio
9.4×
P/B ratio
1.09×
Book value
₹230
Dividend yield
1.00%
ROCE
11.5%
ROE
12.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How UTTAMSUGAR ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is UTTAMSUGAR overvalued? UTTAMSUGAR P/E vs peers

UTTAMSUGAR trades at 9.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

UTTAMSUGAR share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of UTTAMSUGAR history (13%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
UTTAMSUGAR 2027₹156₹261₹439+3%
UTTAMSUGAR 2028₹132₹270₹554+7%
UTTAMSUGAR 2029₹115₹280₹682+11%
UTTAMSUGAR 2030₹103₹289₹814+14%
UTTAMSUGAR 2031₹94₹299₹947+18%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability UTTAMSUGAR goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹506 within 5 years

The bull case for UTTAMSUGAR

  • UTTAMSUGAR's P/E of 9.5x is lower than 87% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.09×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • UTTAMSUGAR's return on equity of 12.2% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹682.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹115.

UTTAMSUGAR volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years UTTAMSUGAR compounded at 13%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹156-₹439, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

UTTAMSUGAR price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.4%
80% range₹156-₹439
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
10.6%
80% range₹115-₹682
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
18.3%
80% range₹94-₹947
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)28%

UTTAMSUGAR price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
UTTAMSUGAR simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds UTTAMSUGAR hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the UTTAMSUGAR price target & forecast page.

UTTAMSUGAR Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. UTTAMSUGAR scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

UTTAMSUGAR MTF margin & leverage across 7 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy UTTAMSUGAR with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 7 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Zerodha33.78%3.0×
Groww33.88%3.0×
Dhan50.00%2.0×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
PocketfulCHEAPEST33.72%3.0×
Anand Rathi33.78%3.0×
Share India33.74%3.0×

Compare every broker on the UTTAMSUGAR MTF page.

About Uttam Sugar Mills Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Uttam Sugar Mills Limited (UTTAMSUGAR) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹956 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the UTTAMSUGAR Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Uttam Sugar Mills Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

UTTAMSUGAR analysis, FAQs

Is Uttam Sugar Mills Limited (UTTAMSUGAR) a good buy?

On the numbers, Uttam Sugar Mills Limited (UTTAMSUGAR) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.4× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is UTTAMSUGAR overvalued or undervalued?

UTTAMSUGAR trades at 9.4× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the UTTAMSUGAR share price target for 2031?

UTTAMSUGAR's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹299, with an 80% range of ₹94-₹947 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability UTTAMSUGAR doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of UTTAMSUGAR reaching ₹506 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for UTTAMSUGAR?

UTTAMSUGAR's P/E of 9.5x is lower than 87% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.09×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. UTTAMSUGAR's return on equity of 12.2% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in UTTAMSUGAR?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on UTTAMSUGAR