Case study

VMART

V-Mart Retail Limited

Tread carefully1y model +3.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

41Score

V-Mart Retail Limited (VMART) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is VMART a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

V-Mart Retail Limited (VMART) trades at ₹807,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, V-Mart Retail Limited (VMART) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 46.3× earnings, ROE of 14.2%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

VMART fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹6,416 Cr
Current price
₹807
P/E ratio
46.3×
P/B ratio
6.73×
Book value
₹120
Dividend yield
0.12%
ROCE
13.2%
ROE
14.2%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How VMART ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is VMART overvalued? VMART P/E vs peers

VMART trades at 46.3× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

VMART share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of VMART history (19%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
VMART 2027₹496₹829₹1,385+4%
VMART 2028₹413₹859₹1,790+8%
VMART 2029₹363₹891₹2,188+11%
VMART 2030₹331₹924₹2,579+16%
VMART 2031₹305₹958₹3,014+20%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability VMART goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,599 within 5 years

The bull case for VMART

  • VMART's return on equity of 14.2% ranks in the 68th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,188.

The bear case & risks

  • VMART's P/E of 45.9x is lower than 29% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹363.

VMART volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years VMART compounded at 19%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹496-₹1,385, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

VMART price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.7%
80% range₹496-₹1,385
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.5%
80% range₹363-₹2,188
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
19.9%
80% range₹305-₹3,014
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)28%

VMART price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
VMART simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds VMART hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the VMART price target & forecast page.

VMART Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. VMART scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

VMART MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy VMART with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha33.32%3.0×
Groww33.39%3.0×
Dhan33.32%3.0×
Kotak Neo34.97%2.9×
Paytm Money34.25%2.9×
PocketfulCHEAPEST33.31%3.0×
Anand Rathi33.32%3.0×
Bajaj Broking35.00%2.9×
Share India33.35%3.0×

Compare every broker on the VMART MTF page.

About V-Mart Retail Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

V-Mart Retail Limited (VMART) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹6,416 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the VMART Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of V-Mart Retail Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

VMART analysis, FAQs

Is V-Mart Retail Limited (VMART) a good buy?

On the numbers, V-Mart Retail Limited (VMART) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 46.3× earnings, ROE of 14.2%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is VMART overvalued or undervalued?

VMART trades at 46.3× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the VMART share price target for 2031?

VMART's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹958, with an 80% range of ₹305-₹3,014 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability VMART doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of VMART reaching ₹1,599 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for VMART?

VMART's return on equity of 14.2% ranks in the 68th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in VMART?

VMART's P/E of 45.9x is lower than 29% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on VMART