Case study

VMM

VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED

Tread carefully1y model +5.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

41Score

VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is VMM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) trades at ₹111,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 58.4× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

VMM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹52,113 Cr
Current price
₹111
P/E ratio
58.4×
P/B ratio
6.98×
Book value
₹16
ROCE
14.8%
ROE
12.2%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How VMM ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is VMM overvalued? VMM P/E vs peers

VMM trades at 58.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

VMM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.6y of VMM history (-2%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
VMM 2027₹73₹114₹178+5%
VMM 2028₹64₹120₹224+10%
VMM 2029₹59₹126₹266+16%
VMM 2030₹55₹132₹319+21%
VMM 2031₹52₹139₹370+28%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability VMM goes up, or doubles?

56%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
62%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹217 within 5 years

The bull case for VMM

  • VMM's return on equity of 12.2% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹266.

The bear case & risks

  • VMM's P/E of 57.1x is lower than 22% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹59.

VMM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.6 years VMM compounded at -2%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹73-₹178, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

VMM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.0%
80% range₹73-₹178
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
15.7%
80% range₹59-₹266
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
27.5%
80% range₹52-₹370
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)28%

VMM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
VMM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds VMM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the VMM price target & forecast page.

VMM Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. VMM scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

VMM MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy VMM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox25.83%3.9×
Zerodha25.00%4.0×
Groww25.03%4.0×
Dhan25.00%4.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST23.34%4.3×
Pocketful29.44%3.4×
Fyers30.30%3.3×
Anand Rathi29.30%3.4×
Bajaj Broking29.00%3.4×
Share India29.40%3.4×

Compare every broker on the VMM MTF page.

About VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹52,113 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the VMM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

VMM analysis, FAQs

Is VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) a good buy?

On the numbers, VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 58.4× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 56% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is VMM overvalued or undervalued?

VMM trades at 58.4× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the VMM share price target for 2031?

VMM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹139, with an 80% range of ₹52-₹370 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability VMM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of VMM reaching ₹217 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for VMM?

VMM's return on equity of 12.2% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in VMM?

VMM's P/E of 57.1x is lower than 22% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on VMM