Case study

VMM

VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED

Tread carefully1y model -2.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is VMM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) trades at ₹119,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 66.2× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

VMM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹55,537 Cr
Current price
₹119
P/E ratio
66.2×
P/B ratio
7.48×
Book value
₹16
ROCE
14.8%
ROE
12.2%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is VMM overvalued? VMM P/E vs its sector

VMM's P/E of 66.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

VMM P/E
66.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

VMM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.5y of VMM history (4%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
VMM 2027₹74₹115₹182-3%
VMM 2028₹60₹113₹213-5%
VMM 2029₹50₹111₹238-7%
VMM 2030₹44₹109₹262-8%
VMM 2031₹39₹105₹281-12%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability VMM goes up, or doubles?

47%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
44%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
14%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹237 within 5 years

The bull case for VMM

  • A healthy 12.2% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹238.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 66.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹50.

VMM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.5 years VMM compounded at 4%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹74₹182, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

VMM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.5 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.7%
80% range₹74–₹182
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
6.5%
80% range₹50–₹238
P(price ↑)45%
P(price 2×)10%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
11.5%
80% range₹39–₹281
P(price ↑)44%
P(price 2×)14%

VMM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
VMM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds VMM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the VMM price target & forecast page.

VMM Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. VMM scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

VMM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy VMM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox29.6%3.4×
Zerodha25.2%4.0×
DhanCHEAPEST25.0%4.0×

Compare every broker on the VMM MTF page.

VMM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
VMM (this stock)66.2×₹55,537 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹55,537 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the VMM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

VMM analysis, FAQs

Is VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) a good buy?

On the numbers, VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITED (VMM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 66.2× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is VMM overvalued or undervalued?

VMM trades at 66.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the VMM share price target for 2031?

VMM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹105, with an 80% range of ₹39₹281 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability VMM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of VMM reaching ₹237 (2×) within 5 years is 14%.

What is the bull case for VMM?

A healthy 12.2% return on equity.

What are the risks in VMM?

A rich 66.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.

More on VMM