Case study

VRLLOG

VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED

Screens attractive1y model +4.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

72Score

VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED (VRLLOG) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is VRLLOG a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED (VRLLOG) trades at ₹279,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100.

On the numbers, VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED (VRLLOG) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.3× earnings, ROE of 21.7%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

VRLLOG fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹4,880 Cr
Current price
₹279
P/E ratio
18.3×
P/B ratio
4.27×
Book value
₹65
Dividend yield
2.69%
ROCE
18.3%
ROE
21.7%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How VRLLOG ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is VRLLOG overvalued? VRLLOG P/E vs peers

VRLLOG trades at 18.3× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

VRLLOG share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of VRLLOG history (6%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
VRLLOG 2027₹196₹293₹439+4%
VRLLOG 2028₹174₹306₹540+9%
VRLLOG 2029₹162₹319₹630+13%
VRLLOG 2030₹150₹333₹737+18%
VRLLOG 2031₹142₹347₹851+23%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability VRLLOG goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
62%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹563 within 5 years

The bull case for VRLLOG

  • VRLLOG's P/E of 18.4x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • VRLLOG's return on equity of 21.7% ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • VRLLOG's return on capital employed of 18.3% ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • VRLLOG's dividend yield of 1.8% ranks in the 84th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹630.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹162.

VRLLOG volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years VRLLOG compounded at 6%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹196-₹439, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

VRLLOG price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.3%
80% range₹196-₹439
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
13.5%
80% range₹162-₹630
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)14%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
23.5%
80% range₹142-₹851
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)25%

VRLLOG price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
VRLLOG simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds VRLLOG hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the VRLLOG price target & forecast page.

VRLLOG Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. VRLLOG scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

VRLLOG MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy VRLLOG with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha29.50%3.4×
Groww29.55%3.4×
Dhan29.50%3.4×
Kotak Neo40.00%2.5×
Paytm Money35.55%2.8×
PocketfulCHEAPEST28.87%3.5×
Fyers50.00%2.0×
Anand Rathi29.50%3.4×
Bajaj Broking30.00%3.3×
Share India29.50%3.4×

Compare every broker on the VRLLOG MTF page.

About VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED (VRLLOG) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,880 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the VRLLOG Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

VRLLOG analysis, FAQs

Is VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED (VRLLOG) a good buy?

On the numbers, VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED (VRLLOG) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.3× earnings, ROE of 21.7%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is VRLLOG overvalued or undervalued?

VRLLOG trades at 18.3× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the VRLLOG share price target for 2031?

VRLLOG's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹347, with an 80% range of ₹142-₹851 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability VRLLOG doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of VRLLOG reaching ₹563 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for VRLLOG?

VRLLOG's P/E of 18.4x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. VRLLOG's return on equity of 21.7% ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. VRLLOG's return on capital employed of 18.3% ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in VRLLOG?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on VRLLOG