Case study

WELSPUNLIV

Welspun India

High-risk on the numbers1y model -5.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Welspun India (WELSPUNLIV) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is WELSPUNLIV a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Welspun India (WELSPUNLIV) trades at ₹162,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.

On the numbers, Welspun India (WELSPUNLIV) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 71.3× earnings, ROE of 4.5%, a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

WELSPUNLIV fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹15,527 Cr
Current price
₹162
P/E ratio
71.3×
P/B ratio
3.16×
Book value
₹51
Dividend yield
0.06%
ROCE
6.3%
ROE
4.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is WELSPUNLIV overvalued? WELSPUNLIV P/E vs its sector

WELSPUNLIV's P/E of 71.3× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.06% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

WELSPUNLIV P/E
71.3×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
WELSPUNLIV div yield
0.06%
Peer median yield
1.65%

WELSPUNLIV share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of WELSPUNLIV history (5%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
WELSPUNLIV 2027₹86₹154₹280-5%
WELSPUNLIV 2028₹64₹145₹341-10%
WELSPUNLIV 2029₹51₹137₹379-16%
WELSPUNLIV 2030₹41₹131₹431-19%
WELSPUNLIV 2031₹34₹125₹463-23%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability WELSPUNLIV goes up, or doubles?

46%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
40%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
18%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹324 within 5 years

The bull case for WELSPUNLIV

  • Welspun India is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹379.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 71.3× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 4.5%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹51.

WELSPUNLIV volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years WELSPUNLIV compounded at 5%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹86₹280, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

WELSPUNLIV price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.4%
80% range₹86–₹280
P(price ↑)46%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
15.5%
80% range₹51–₹379
P(price ↑)42%
P(price 2×)14%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
23.0%
80% range₹34–₹463
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)18%

WELSPUNLIV price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
WELSPUNLIV simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds WELSPUNLIV hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the WELSPUNLIV price target & forecast page.

WELSPUNLIV Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. WELSPUNLIV scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

WELSPUNLIV MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy WELSPUNLIV with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST36.7%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST36.7%2.7×

Compare every broker on the WELSPUNLIV MTF page.

WELSPUNLIV vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
WELSPUNLIV (this stock)71.3×0.06%₹15,527 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Welspun India: sector, index & market-cap context

Welspun India (WELSPUNLIV) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹15,527 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the WELSPUNLIV Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Welspun India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

WELSPUNLIV analysis, FAQs

Is Welspun India (WELSPUNLIV) a good buy?

On the numbers, Welspun India (WELSPUNLIV) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 71.3× earnings, ROE of 4.5%, a 46% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is WELSPUNLIV overvalued or undervalued?

WELSPUNLIV trades at 71.3× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the WELSPUNLIV share price target for 2031?

WELSPUNLIV's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹125, with an 80% range of ₹34₹463 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability WELSPUNLIV doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of WELSPUNLIV reaching ₹324 (2×) within 5 years is 18%.

What is the bull case for WELSPUNLIV?

Welspun India is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in WELSPUNLIV?

A rich 71.3× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 4.5%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on WELSPUNLIV