Case study

AADHARHFC

Aadhar Housing Finance Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +6.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

57Score

Aadhar Housing Finance Limited (AADHARHFC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AADHARHFC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Aadhar Housing Finance Limited (AADHARHFC) trades at ₹506,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Aadhar Housing Finance Limited (AADHARHFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.2× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AADHARHFC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹22,147 Cr
Current price
₹506
P/E ratio
19.2×
P/B ratio
2.92×
Book value
₹173
ROCE
11.4%
ROE
15.9%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How AADHARHFC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for AADHARHFC, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is AADHARHFC overvalued? AADHARHFC P/E vs peers

AADHARHFC trades at 19.2× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

AADHARHFC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.2y of AADHARHFC history (19%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AADHARHFC 2027₹359₹540₹814+7%
AADHARHFC 2028₹321₹576₹1,034+14%
AADHARHFC 2029₹301₹615₹1,255+21%
AADHARHFC 2030₹288₹656₹1,496+30%
AADHARHFC 2031₹281₹700₹1,742+38%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AADHARHFC goes up, or doubles?

58%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
68%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
30%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,013 within 5 years

The bull case for AADHARHFC

  • AADHARHFC's P/E of 19.2x is lower than 64% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • AADHARHFC's return on equity of 15.9% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,255.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹301.

AADHARHFC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.2 years AADHARHFC compounded at 19%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹359-₹814, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AADHARHFC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.2 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.7%
80% range₹359-₹814
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
21.4%
80% range₹301-₹1,255
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
38.2%
80% range₹281-₹1,742
P(price ↑)68%
P(price 2×)30%

AADHARHFC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AADHARHFC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AADHARHFC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AADHARHFC price target & forecast page.

AADHARHFC Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AADHARHFC scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

AADHARHFC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AADHARHFC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox29.14%3.4×
Zerodha29.14%3.4×
Groww29.14%3.4×
Dhan29.14%3.4×
Kotak Neo30.03%3.3×
Paytm Money37.14%2.7×
Pocketful29.37%3.4×
Fyers30.30%3.3×
Anand Rathi29.14%3.4×
Bajaj Broking30.00%3.3×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST29.10%3.4×

Compare every broker on the AADHARHFC MTF page.

About Aadhar Housing Finance Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Aadhar Housing Finance Limited (AADHARHFC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹22,147 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the AADHARHFC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Aadhar Housing Finance Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AADHARHFC analysis, FAQs

Is Aadhar Housing Finance Limited (AADHARHFC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Aadhar Housing Finance Limited (AADHARHFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.2× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AADHARHFC overvalued or undervalued?

AADHARHFC trades at 19.2× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the AADHARHFC share price target for 2031?

AADHARHFC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹700, with an 80% range of ₹281-₹1,742 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AADHARHFC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AADHARHFC reaching ₹1,013 (2×) within 5 years is 30%.

What is the bull case for AADHARHFC?

AADHARHFC's P/E of 19.2x is lower than 64% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. AADHARHFC's return on equity of 15.9% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in AADHARHFC?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on AADHARHFC