AADHARHFC
AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is AADHARHFC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) trades at ₹495,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.
On the numbers, AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.5× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
AADHARHFC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is AADHARHFC overvalued? AADHARHFC P/E vs its sector
AADHARHFC's P/E of 19.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
AADHARHFC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of AADHARHFC history (14%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AADHARHFC 2027 | ₹375 | ₹566 | ₹855 | +10% |
| AADHARHFC 2028 | ₹347 | ₹617 | ₹1,107 | +20% |
| AADHARHFC 2029 | ₹334 | ₹674 | ₹1,388 | +31% |
| AADHARHFC 2030 | ₹326 | ₹742 | ₹1,711 | +44% |
| AADHARHFC 2031 | ₹324 | ₹812 | ₹2,050 | +58% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability AADHARHFC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for AADHARHFC
- A 19.5× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- A healthy 15.9% return on equity.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹566 (+10%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,388.
The bear case & risks
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹334.
AADHARHFC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years AADHARHFC compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹375–₹855, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
AADHARHFC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
AADHARHFC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds AADHARHFC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the AADHARHFC price target & forecast page.
AADHARHFC Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. AADHARHFC scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
AADHARHFC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AADHARHFC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the AADHARHFC MTF page.
AADHARHFC vs peers,sector comparison
About AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L: sector, index & market-cap context
AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹21,640 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the AADHARHFC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
AADHARHFC analysis, FAQs
Is AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) a good buy?
On the numbers, AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.5× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is AADHARHFC overvalued or undervalued?
AADHARHFC trades at 19.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the AADHARHFC share price target for 2031?
AADHARHFC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹812, with an 80% range of ₹324–₹2,050 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability AADHARHFC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of AADHARHFC reaching ₹1,030 (2×) within 5 years is 37%.
What is the bull case for AADHARHFC?
A 19.5× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 15.9% return on equity. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹566 (+10%).
What are the risks in AADHARHFC?
A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.