Case study

AADHARHFC

AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L

Worth a closer look1y model +9.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AADHARHFC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) trades at ₹495,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.5× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AADHARHFC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹21,640 Cr
Current price
₹495
P/E ratio
19.5×
P/B ratio
2.86×
Book value
₹173
ROCE
11.4%
ROE
15.9%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is AADHARHFC overvalued? AADHARHFC P/E vs its sector

AADHARHFC's P/E of 19.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

AADHARHFC P/E
19.5×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

AADHARHFC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of AADHARHFC history (14%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AADHARHFC 2027₹375₹566₹855+10%
AADHARHFC 2028₹347₹617₹1,107+20%
AADHARHFC 2029₹334₹674₹1,388+31%
AADHARHFC 2030₹326₹742₹1,711+44%
AADHARHFC 2031₹324₹812₹2,050+58%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AADHARHFC goes up, or doubles?

62%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
74%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
37%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,030 within 5 years

The bull case for AADHARHFC

  • A 19.5× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 15.9% return on equity.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹566 (+10%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,388.

The bear case & risks

  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹334.

AADHARHFC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years AADHARHFC compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹375₹855, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AADHARHFC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.8%
80% range₹375–₹855
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
30.9%
80% range₹334–₹1,388
P(price ↑)69%
P(price 2×)23%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
57.6%
80% range₹324–₹2,050
P(price ↑)74%
P(price 2×)37%

AADHARHFC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AADHARHFC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AADHARHFC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AADHARHFC price target & forecast page.

AADHARHFC Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. AADHARHFC scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

AADHARHFC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AADHARHFC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST29.1%3.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.1%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST29.1%3.4×

Compare every broker on the AADHARHFC MTF page.

AADHARHFC vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
AADHARHFC (this stock)19.5×₹21,640 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L: sector, index & market-cap context

AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹21,640 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the AADHARHFC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AADHARHFC analysis, FAQs

Is AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) a good buy?

On the numbers, AADHAR HOUSING FINANCE L (AADHARHFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.5× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 62% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AADHARHFC overvalued or undervalued?

AADHARHFC trades at 19.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the AADHARHFC share price target for 2031?

AADHARHFC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹812, with an 80% range of ₹324₹2,050 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AADHARHFC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AADHARHFC reaching ₹1,030 (2×) within 5 years is 37%.

What is the bull case for AADHARHFC?

A 19.5× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 15.9% return on equity. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 62% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹566 (+10%).

What are the risks in AADHARHFC?

A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.

More on AADHARHFC