Case study

AAVAS

AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED

Worth a closer look1y model +5.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

57Score

AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED (AAVAS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AAVAS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED (AAVAS) trades at ₹1,372,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED (AAVAS) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.2× earnings, ROE of 13.9%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AAVAS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹10,875 Cr
Current price
₹1,372
P/E ratio
22.2×
P/B ratio
2.88×
Book value
₹477
ROCE
9.9%
ROE
13.9%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How AAVAS ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for AAVAS, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is AAVAS overvalued? AAVAS P/E vs peers

AAVAS trades at 22.2× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

AAVAS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 7.7y of AAVAS history (7%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AAVAS 2027₹985₹1,447₹2,124+5%
AAVAS 2028₹890₹1,526₹2,617+11%
AAVAS 2029₹831₹1,609₹3,118+17%
AAVAS 2030₹796₹1,698₹3,618+24%
AAVAS 2031₹766₹1,790₹4,185+31%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AAVAS goes up, or doubles?

57%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
66%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,743 within 5 years

The bull case for AAVAS

  • AAVAS's P/E of 22.2x is lower than 58% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • AAVAS's return on equity of 13.9% ranks in the 67th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,118.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹831.

AAVAS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 7.7 years AAVAS compounded at 7%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹985-₹2,124, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AAVAS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 7.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.5%
80% range₹985-₹2,124
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
17.3%
80% range₹831-₹3,118
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)15%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
30.5%
80% range₹766-₹4,185
P(price ↑)66%
P(price 2×)26%

AAVAS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AAVAS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AAVAS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AAVAS price target & forecast page.

AAVAS Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AAVAS scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

AAVAS MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AAVAS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.22%3.3×
Zerodha30.19%3.3×
Groww30.28%3.3×
Dhan30.19%3.3×
Kotak Neo30.21%3.3×
Paytm Money39.92%2.5×
PocketfulCHEAPEST29.90%3.3×
Fyers31.25%3.2×
Anand Rathi30.19%3.3×
Bajaj Broking32.00%3.1×
Share India30.22%3.3×

Compare every broker on the AAVAS MTF page.

About AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED (AAVAS) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,875 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the AAVAS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AAVAS analysis, FAQs

Is AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED (AAVAS) a good buy?

On the numbers, AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED (AAVAS) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.2× earnings, ROE of 13.9%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AAVAS overvalued or undervalued?

AAVAS trades at 22.2× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the AAVAS share price target for 2031?

AAVAS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,790, with an 80% range of ₹766-₹4,185 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AAVAS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AAVAS reaching ₹2,743 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for AAVAS?

AAVAS's P/E of 22.2x is lower than 58% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. AAVAS's return on equity of 13.9% ranks in the 67th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in AAVAS?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on AAVAS