AMBUJACEM
Ambuja Cements Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Ambuja Cements Limited (AMBUJACEM) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is AMBUJACEM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Ambuja Cements Limited (AMBUJACEM) trades at ₹434,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.
On the numbers, Ambuja Cements Limited (AMBUJACEM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.9× earnings, ROE of 8.8%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
AMBUJACEM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How AMBUJACEM ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- AMBUJACEM's market cap of 1.08L Cr ranks in the top 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- AMBUJACEM's book value of ₹240 ranks in the 76th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- AMBUJACEM's promoter holding of 67.3% ranks in the 68th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- AMBUJACEM's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 21.0% ranks in the 58th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- AMBUJACEM's 3-year revenue growth of 1.0% ranks in the 24th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- AMBUJACEM's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01x is lower than 98% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is AMBUJACEM overvalued? AMBUJACEM P/E vs its Cement
AMBUJACEM's P/E of 22.9× sits above the Cement peer median of 22.9×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.46% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.78%.
AMBUJACEM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of AMBUJACEM history (5%/yr drift, 28%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMBUJACEM 2027 | ₹330 | ₹467 | ₹660 | +7% |
| AMBUJACEM 2028 | ₹302 | ₹501 | ₹832 | +16% |
| AMBUJACEM 2029 | ₹293 | ₹539 | ₹993 | +24% |
| AMBUJACEM 2030 | ₹286 | ₹579 | ₹1,175 | +34% |
| AMBUJACEM 2031 | ₹280 | ₹623 | ₹1,386 | +44% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability AMBUJACEM goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for AMBUJACEM
- AMBUJACEM's P/E of 22.9x is lower than 57% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹467 (+7%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹993.
The bear case & risks
- AMBUJACEM's return on equity of 8.8% ranks in the 43rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹293.
AMBUJACEM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years AMBUJACEM compounded at 5%/year with annualized volatility of 28%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹330-₹660, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
AMBUJACEM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
AMBUJACEM price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds AMBUJACEM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the AMBUJACEM price target & forecast page.
AMBUJACEM Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AMBUJACEM scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
AMBUJACEM MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AMBUJACEM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 25.77% | 3.9× |
| Zerodha | 24.90% | 4.0× |
| Groww | 24.92% | 4.0× |
| Dhan | 24.00% | 4.2× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 22.27% | 4.5× |
| Paytm Money | 22.70% | 4.4× |
| Pocketful | 29.41% | 3.4× |
| Fyers | 30.30% | 3.3× |
| Anand Rathi | 29.24% | 3.4× |
| Bajaj Broking | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Share India | 29.26% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the AMBUJACEM MTF page.
AMBUJACEM vs peers,Cement comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMBUJACEM (this stock) | 22.9× | 0.46% | ₹1.08L Cr |
| GRASIM | 45.2× | 0.30% | ₹2.26L Cr |
| ULTRACEMCO | 41.4× | 1.98% | ₹3.57L Cr |
| RELIANCE | 24.2× | 0.45% | ₹18.06L Cr |
| TCS | 16.5× | 2.61% | ₹8.87L Cr |
| HDFCBANK | 14.3× | 1.78% | ₹11.26L Cr |
| INFY | 15.3× | 4.08% | ₹4.77L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Ambuja Cements Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Ambuja Cements Limited (AMBUJACEM) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Cement sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.08L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the AMBUJACEM Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ambuja Cements Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
AMBUJACEM analysis, FAQs
Is Ambuja Cements Limited (AMBUJACEM) a good buy?
On the numbers, Ambuja Cements Limited (AMBUJACEM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.9× earnings, ROE of 8.8%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is AMBUJACEM overvalued or undervalued?
AMBUJACEM trades at 22.9× earnings versus a peer median of 22.9×, so it screens richer than its Cement peers.
What is the AMBUJACEM share price target for 2031?
AMBUJACEM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹623, with an 80% range of ₹280-₹1,386 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability AMBUJACEM doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of AMBUJACEM reaching ₹868 (2×) within 5 years is 30%.
What is the bull case for AMBUJACEM?
AMBUJACEM's P/E of 22.9x is lower than 57% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹467 (+7%).
What are the risks in AMBUJACEM?
AMBUJACEM's return on equity of 8.8% ranks in the 43rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.