Case study

GRASIM

Grasim Industries Limited

Tread carefully1y model +10.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

44Score

Grasim Industries Limited (GRASIM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GRASIM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Grasim Industries Limited (GRASIM) trades at ₹3,323,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, Grasim Industries Limited (GRASIM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing expensive at 45.2× earnings, ROE of 5.0%, a 67% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

The Downstox take on GRASIM

The real puzzle with Grasim is paying a P/E of 42.5 for a holding company earning just 5% on equity and 8% on capital. That gap usually says the market is pricing a turn that has not shown up in the books yet, likely the heavy new-business spend rather than the legacy cement and fibre cash flows. The thin 0.31% yield and a middling Piotroski 4 of 8 suggest the financials are not yet confirming the optimism. Watch whether returns on capital start climbing toward the multiple, or whether the multiple drifts back toward the returns.

Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.

GRASIM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2.26L Cr
Current price
₹3,323
P/E ratio
45.2×
P/B ratio
2.19×
Book value
₹1,520
Dividend yield
0.30%
ROCE
8.0%
ROE
5.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How GRASIM ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is GRASIM overvalued? GRASIM P/E vs its Cement

GRASIM's P/E of 45.2× sits above the Cement peer median of 22.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.30% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.78%.

GRASIM P/E
45.2×
Peer median P/E
22.9×
GRASIM div yield
0.30%
Peer median yield
1.78%

GRASIM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of GRASIM history (14%/yr drift, 23%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GRASIM 2027₹2,743₹3,666₹4,900+10%
GRASIM 2028₹2,654₹4,044₹6,162+22%
GRASIM 2029₹2,684₹4,462₹7,418+34%
GRASIM 2030₹2,741₹4,923₹8,839+48%
GRASIM 2031₹2,843₹5,431₹10,374+63%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GRASIM goes up, or doubles?

67%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
83%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
35%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹6,646 within 5 years

The bull case for GRASIM

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 67% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,666 (+10%).
  • Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,418.

The bear case & risks

  • GRASIM's P/E of 45.2x is lower than 30% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • GRASIM's return on equity of 5.0% ranks in the 29th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,684.

GRASIM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years GRASIM compounded at 14%/year with annualized volatility of 23%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,743-₹4,900, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GRASIM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.3%
80% range₹2,743-₹4,900
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
34.3%
80% range₹2,684-₹7,418
P(price ↑)78%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
63.4%
80% range₹2,843-₹10,374
P(price ↑)83%
P(price 2×)35%

GRASIM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GRASIM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GRASIM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GRASIM price target & forecast page.

GRASIM Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. GRASIM scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

GRASIM MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GRASIM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox23.20%4.3×
Zerodha22.80%4.4×
Groww22.75%4.4×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Pocketful26.50%3.8×
Fyers27.03%3.7×
Anand Rathi26.81%3.7×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India26.53%3.8×

Compare every broker on the GRASIM MTF page.

GRASIM vs peers,Cement comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GRASIM (this stock)45.2×0.30%₹2.26L Cr
ULTRACEMCO41.4×1.98%₹3.57L Cr
AMBUJACEM22.9×0.46%₹1.08L Cr
RELIANCE24.2×0.45%₹18.06L Cr
TCS16.5×2.61%₹8.87L Cr
HDFCBANK14.3×1.78%₹11.26L Cr
INFY15.3×4.08%₹4.77L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Grasim Industries Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Grasim Industries Limited (GRASIM) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Cement sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.26L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the GRASIM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Grasim Industries Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GRASIM analysis, FAQs

Is Grasim Industries Limited (GRASIM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Grasim Industries Limited (GRASIM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing expensive at 45.2× earnings, ROE of 5.0%, a 67% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GRASIM overvalued or undervalued?

GRASIM trades at 45.2× earnings versus a peer median of 22.9×, so it screens richer than its Cement peers.

What is the GRASIM share price target for 2031?

GRASIM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,431, with an 80% range of ₹2,843-₹10,374 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GRASIM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GRASIM reaching ₹6,646 (2×) within 5 years is 35%.

What is the bull case for GRASIM?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 67% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,666 (+10%). Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in GRASIM?

GRASIM's P/E of 45.2x is lower than 30% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. GRASIM's return on equity of 5.0% ranks in the 29th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on GRASIM