Case study

AUBANK

Au Small Finance Bank Limited

Mixed signals1y model +7.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

48Score

Au Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is AUBANK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Au Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK) trades at ₹1,067,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100.

On the numbers, Au Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing expensive at 235.0× earnings, ROE of 22.3%, a 59% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

AUBANK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹79,981 Cr
Current price
₹1,067
P/E ratio
235.0×
P/B ratio
11855.56×
Book value
₹0
Dividend yield
0.09%
ROCE
12.4%
ROE
22.3%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How AUBANK ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for AUBANK, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is AUBANK overvalued? AUBANK P/E vs peers

AUBANK trades at 235.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

AUBANK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 8.9y of AUBANK history (15%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
AUBANK 2027₹779₹1,145₹1,683+7%
AUBANK 2028₹709₹1,229₹2,131+15%
AUBANK 2029₹675₹1,319₹2,575+24%
AUBANK 2030₹658₹1,415₹3,044+33%
AUBANK 2031₹638₹1,518₹3,616+42%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability AUBANK goes up, or doubles?

59%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
70%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
31%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,134 within 5 years

The bull case for AUBANK

  • AUBANK's return on equity of 22.3% ranks in the 87th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,575.

The bear case & risks

  • AUBANK's P/E of 235.0x is lower than 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 11855.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹675.

AUBANK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 8.9 years AUBANK compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹779-₹1,683, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

AUBANK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 8.9 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.3%
80% range₹779-₹1,683
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
23.6%
80% range₹675-₹2,575
P(price ↑)66%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
42.3%
80% range₹638-₹3,616
P(price ↑)70%
P(price 2×)31%

AUBANK price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
AUBANK simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds AUBANK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the AUBANK price target & forecast page.

AUBANK Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. AUBANK scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

AUBANK MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy AUBANK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox26.30%3.8×
Zerodha25.40%3.9×
Groww25.38%3.9×
Dhan24.00%4.2×
Kotak Neo25.00%4.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST22.91%4.4×
Pocketful29.72%3.4×
Anand Rathi29.80%3.4×
Bajaj Broking24.00%4.2×
Share India29.79%3.4×

Compare every broker on the AUBANK MTF page.

About Au Small Finance Bank Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Au Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹79,981 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the AUBANK Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Au Small Finance Bank Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

AUBANK analysis, FAQs

Is Au Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK) a good buy?

On the numbers, Au Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 48/100, weighing expensive at 235.0× earnings, ROE of 22.3%, a 59% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is AUBANK overvalued or undervalued?

AUBANK trades at 235.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the AUBANK share price target for 2031?

AUBANK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,518, with an 80% range of ₹638-₹3,616 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability AUBANK doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of AUBANK reaching ₹2,134 (2×) within 5 years is 31%.

What is the bull case for AUBANK?

AUBANK's return on equity of 22.3% ranks in the 87th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in AUBANK?

AUBANK's P/E of 235.0x is lower than 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 11855.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on AUBANK