Case study

EMAMIPAP

Emami Paper Mills Limited

Tread carefully1y model -21.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Emami Paper Mills Limited (EMAMIPAP) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is EMAMIPAP a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, Emami Paper Mills Limited (EMAMIPAP) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 27% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

EMAMIPAP share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.7y of EMAMIPAP history (-16%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
EMAMIPAP 2027₹40₹68₹111-21%
EMAMIPAP 2028₹26₹53₹109-38%
EMAMIPAP 2029₹17₹42₹99-52%
EMAMIPAP 2030₹12₹32₹90-63%
EMAMIPAP 2031₹8₹25₹77-70%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability EMAMIPAP goes up, or doubles?

27%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
8%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹172 within 5 years

The bull case for EMAMIPAP

  • Emami Paper Mills Limited is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹99.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 27% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹17.

EMAMIPAP volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.7 years EMAMIPAP compounded at -16%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹40-₹111, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

EMAMIPAP price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
21.3%
80% range₹40-₹111
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
51.5%
80% range₹17-₹99
P(price ↑)14%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
70.4%
80% range₹8-₹77
P(price ↑)8%
P(price 2×)1%

EMAMIPAP price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
EMAMIPAP simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds EMAMIPAP hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the EMAMIPAP price target & forecast page.

EMAMIPAP vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
EMAMIPAP (this stock)---
RELIANCE22.5×0.46%₹17.51L Cr
TCS14.0×3.15%₹7.35L Cr
HDFCBANK16.2×1.63%₹12.29L Cr
INFY13.5×4.80%₹4.06L Cr
ICICIBANK18.2×0.80%₹9.86L Cr
SBIN11.4×1.69%₹9.48L Cr

About Emami Paper Mills Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Emami Paper Mills Limited (EMAMIPAP) is an NSE-listed company.

How the EMAMIPAP Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Emami Paper Mills Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

EMAMIPAP analysis, FAQs

Is Emami Paper Mills Limited (EMAMIPAP) a good buy?

On the numbers, Emami Paper Mills Limited (EMAMIPAP) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing a 27% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is EMAMIPAP overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for EMAMIPAP are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the EMAMIPAP share price target for 2031?

EMAMIPAP's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹25, with an 80% range of ₹8-₹77 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability EMAMIPAP doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of EMAMIPAP reaching ₹172 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for EMAMIPAP?

Emami Paper Mills Limited is part of the NSE universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in EMAMIPAP?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 27% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on EMAMIPAP