SBIN
State Bank of India
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
State Bank of India (SBIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is SBIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
State Bank of India (SBIN) trades at ₹1,085,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100.
On the numbers, State Bank of India (SBIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.0× earnings, ROE of 15.4%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
SBIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How SBIN ranks against the 2,371 companies in our screener
- SBIN's market cap of 10.03L Cr ranks in the top 1% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- SBIN's book value of ₹646 ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- SBIN's promoter holding of 55.5% ranks in the 42nd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- SBIN's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 14.0% ranks in the 48th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- SBIN's 3-year revenue growth of 14.0% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for SBIN, as of 8 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is SBIN overvalued? SBIN P/E vs its Banking
SBIN's P/E of 12.0× sits below the Banking peer median of 18.2×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.60% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.17%.
SBIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of SBIN history (16%/yr drift, 23%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBIN 2027 | ₹901 | ₹1,204 | ₹1,608 | +10% |
| SBIN 2028 | ₹883 | ₹1,320 | ₹1,975 | +20% |
| SBIN 2029 | ₹875 | ₹1,448 | ₹2,397 | +32% |
| SBIN 2030 | ₹897 | ₹1,589 | ₹2,813 | +45% |
| SBIN 2031 | ₹912 | ₹1,743 | ₹3,329 | +59% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability SBIN goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for SBIN
- SBIN's P/E of 12.0x is lower than 82% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- SBIN's return on equity of 15.4% ranks in the 72nd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,204 (+10%).
- Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,397.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹875.
SBIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years SBIN compounded at 16%/year with annualized volatility of 23%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹901-₹1,608, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
SBIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
SBIN price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds SBIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the SBIN price target & forecast page.
SBIN Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. SBIN scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
SBIN MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy SBIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 23.51% | 4.3× |
| Zerodha | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Groww | 22.99% | 4.3× |
| Dhan | 22.00% | 4.5× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Paytm Money | 20.93% | 4.8× |
| Pocketful | 27.11% | 3.7× |
| Anand Rathi | 27.00% | 3.7× |
| Bajaj Broking | 23.00% | 4.3× |
| Share India | 26.99% | 3.7× |
Compare every broker on the SBIN MTF page.
SBIN vs peers,Banking comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBIN (this stock) | 12.0× | 1.60% | ₹10.03L Cr |
| HDFCBANK | 14.3× | 1.78% | ₹11.26L Cr |
| ICICIBANK | 18.2× | 0.84% | ₹10.20L Cr |
| KOTAKBANK | 19.4× | 0.17% | ₹3.89L Cr |
| INDUSINDBK | 60.2× | 0.15% | ₹79,627 Cr |
| YESBANK | 19.2× | 0.00% | ₹72,571 Cr |
| AXISBANK | 13.9× | 0.08% | ₹3.85L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 8 Aug 2026
About State Bank of India: sector, index & market-cap context
State Bank of India (SBIN) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Banking sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹10.03L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the SBIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of State Bank of India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
SBIN analysis, FAQs
Is State Bank of India (SBIN) a good buy?
On the numbers, State Bank of India (SBIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing inexpensive at 12.0× earnings, ROE of 15.4%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is SBIN overvalued or undervalued?
SBIN trades at 12.0× earnings versus a peer median of 18.2×, so it screens cheaper than its Banking peers.
What is the SBIN share price target for 2031?
SBIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,743, with an 80% range of ₹912-₹3,329 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability SBIN doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of SBIN reaching ₹2,194 (2×) within 5 years is 32%.
What is the bull case for SBIN?
SBIN's P/E of 12.0x is lower than 82% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. SBIN's return on equity of 15.4% ranks in the 72nd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,204 (+10%).
What are the risks in SBIN?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.