Case study

ICICIBANK

Icici Bank Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +11.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

68Score

Icici Bank Limited (ICICIBANK) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ICICIBANK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Icici Bank Limited (ICICIBANK) trades at ₹1,421,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100.

On the numbers, Icici Bank Limited (ICICIBANK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 72% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

The Downstox take on ICICIBANK

The real debate here is whether you are paying a quality premium or just an India-banking premium. A 16% ROE on a P/E near 18 looks fair for a large private lender, but the gap between that ROE and a single-digit ROCE is just how banks work, since deposits sit as liabilities, so judge profitability on ROE and net interest margins, not ROCE. The thin Piotroski score is the odd note worth probing. Watch loan growth, slippages and deposit costs, because for a bank priced for steadiness, asset quality is the whole story.

Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.

ICICIBANK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹10.20L Cr
Current price
₹1,421
P/E ratio
18.2×
P/B ratio
2.70×
Book value
₹527
Dividend yield
0.84%
ROCE
7.2%
ROE
15.9%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How ICICIBANK ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold promoter holding or debt-to-equity ratio figures for ICICIBANK, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is ICICIBANK overvalued? ICICIBANK P/E vs its Banking

ICICIBANK's P/E of 18.2× sits above the Banking peer median of 18.2×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.84% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.17%.

ICICIBANK P/E
18.2×
Peer median P/E
18.2×
ICICIBANK div yield
0.84%
Peer median yield
0.17%

ICICIBANK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ICICIBANK history (19%/yr drift, 19%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ICICIBANK 2027₹1,252₹1,591₹2,021+12%
ICICIBANK 2028₹1,268₹1,780₹2,499+25%
ICICIBANK 2029₹1,324₹1,993₹2,999+40%
ICICIBANK 2030₹1,384₹2,230₹3,594+57%
ICICIBANK 2031₹1,459₹2,496₹4,271+76%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ICICIBANK goes up, or doubles?

72%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
91%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
38%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,842 within 5 years

The bull case for ICICIBANK

  • ICICIBANK's P/E of 18.2x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • ICICIBANK's return on equity of 15.9% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 72% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,591 (+12%).
  • Relatively low volatility (19%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,999.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,324.

ICICIBANK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years ICICIBANK compounded at 19%/year with annualized volatility of 19%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,252-₹2,021, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ICICIBANK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
11.9%
80% range₹1,252-₹2,021
P(price ↑)72%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
40.2%
80% range₹1,324-₹2,999
P(price ↑)85%
P(price 2×)13%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
75.7%
80% range₹1,459-₹4,271
P(price ↑)91%
P(price 2×)38%

ICICIBANK price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ICICIBANK simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ICICIBANK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ICICIBANK price target & forecast page.

ICICIBANK Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ICICIBANK scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

ICICIBANK MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ICICIBANK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox23.00%4.3×
Zerodha22.60%4.4×
Groww22.56%4.4×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Pocketful26.50%3.8×
Fyers27.03%3.7×
Anand Rathi26.50%3.8×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India26.50%3.8×

Compare every broker on the ICICIBANK MTF page.

ICICIBANK vs peers,Banking comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ICICIBANK (this stock)18.2×0.84%₹10.20L Cr
HDFCBANK14.3×1.78%₹11.26L Cr
SBIN12.0×1.58%₹10.13L Cr
KOTAKBANK19.4×0.17%₹3.89L Cr
INDUSINDBK60.2×0.15%₹79,627 Cr
YESBANK18.9×0.00%₹71,218 Cr
AXISBANK13.9×0.08%₹3.85L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Icici Bank Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Icici Bank Limited (ICICIBANK) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Banking sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹10.20L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ICICIBANK Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Icici Bank Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ICICIBANK analysis, FAQs

Is Icici Bank Limited (ICICIBANK) a good buy?

On the numbers, Icici Bank Limited (ICICIBANK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 15.9%, a 72% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ICICIBANK overvalued or undervalued?

ICICIBANK trades at 18.2× earnings versus a peer median of 18.2×, so it screens richer than its Banking peers.

What is the ICICIBANK share price target for 2031?

ICICIBANK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,496, with an 80% range of ₹1,459-₹4,271 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ICICIBANK doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ICICIBANK reaching ₹2,842 (2×) within 5 years is 38%.

What is the bull case for ICICIBANK?

ICICIBANK's P/E of 18.2x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. ICICIBANK's return on equity of 15.9% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 72% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,591 (+12%).

What are the risks in ICICIBANK?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on ICICIBANK