ICICIBANK
ICICI Bank
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ICICIBANK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK) trades at ₹1,352,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100.
On the numbers, ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.9× earnings, ROE of 16.1%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on ICICIBANK
The real debate here is whether you are paying a quality premium or just an India-banking premium. A 16% ROE on a P/E near 18 looks fair for a large private lender, but the gap between that ROE and a single-digit ROCE is just how banks work, since deposits sit as liabilities, so judge profitability on ROE and net interest margins, not ROCE. The thin Piotroski score is the odd note worth probing. Watch loan growth, slippages and deposit costs, because for a bank priced for steadiness, asset quality is the whole story.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts. Information, not investment advice.
ICICIBANK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ICICIBANK overvalued? ICICIBANK P/E vs its Banking
ICICIBANK's P/E of 17.9× sits above the Banking peer median of 17.9×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.81% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.16%.
ICICIBANK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ICICIBANK history (7%/yr drift, 19%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICICIBANK 2027 | ₹1,120 | ₹1,419 | ₹1,793 | +5% |
| ICICIBANK 2028 | ₹1,074 | ₹1,498 | ₹2,081 | +11% |
| ICICIBANK 2029 | ₹1,043 | ₹1,581 | ₹2,360 | +17% |
| ICICIBANK 2030 | ₹1,046 | ₹1,652 | ₹2,688 | +23% |
| ICICIBANK 2031 | ₹1,033 | ₹1,757 | ₹3,009 | +31% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ICICIBANK goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ICICIBANK
- A 17.9× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- A healthy 16.1% return on equity.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,419 (+5%).
- Relatively low volatility (19%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,360.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,043.
ICICIBANK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ICICIBANK compounded at 7%/year with annualized volatility of 19%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,120–₹1,793, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ICICIBANK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ICICIBANK price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ICICIBANK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ICICIBANK price target & forecast page.
ICICIBANK Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ICICIBANK scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
ICICIBANK MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ICICIBANK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.5% | 3.8× |
| Zerodha | 22.6% | 4.4× |
| Groww | 22.6% | 4.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the ICICIBANK MTF page.
ICICIBANK vs peers,Banking comparison
About ICICI Bank: sector, index & market-cap context
ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Banking sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹9.70L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the ICICIBANK Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ICICI Bank's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ICICIBANK analysis, FAQs
Is ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK) a good buy?
On the numbers, ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.9× earnings, ROE of 16.1%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ICICIBANK overvalued or undervalued?
ICICIBANK trades at 17.9× earnings versus a peer median of 17.9×, so it screens richer than its Banking peers.
What is the ICICIBANK share price target for 2031?
ICICIBANK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,757, with an 80% range of ₹1,033–₹3,009 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ICICIBANK doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ICICIBANK reaching ₹2,693 (2×) within 5 years is 15%.
What is the bull case for ICICIBANK?
A 17.9× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 16.1% return on equity. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,419 (+5%).
What are the risks in ICICIBANK?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.