Case study

HLVLTD

Hlv Limited

Worth a closer look1y model -50.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Hlv Limited (HLVLTD) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HLVLTD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hlv Limited (HLVLTD) trades at ₹8,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, Hlv Limited (HLVLTD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 3.0× earnings, ROE of 47.2%, a 6% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HLVLTD fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹508 Cr
Current price
₹8
P/E ratio
3.0×
P/B ratio
1.06×
Book value
₹7
ROCE
7.8%
ROE
47.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is HLVLTD overvalued? HLVLTD P/E vs its sector

HLVLTD's P/E of 3.0× sits below the sector peer median of 14.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers.

HLVLTD P/E
3.0×
Peer median P/E
14.0×
Peer median yield
1.66%

HLVLTD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HLVLTD history (-59%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HLVLTD 2027₹2₹4₹7-50%
HLVLTD 2028₹1₹2₹4-75%
HLVLTD 2029₹0₹1₹3-87%
HLVLTD 2030₹0₹0₹2-94%
HLVLTD 2031₹0₹0₹1-97%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HLVLTD goes up, or doubles?

6%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
0%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹15 within 5 years

The bull case for HLVLTD

  • Trades at just 3.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.06×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • High return on equity (47.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 6% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹0.

HLVLTD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HLVLTD compounded at -59%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2-₹7, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HLVLTD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
50.0%
80% range₹2-₹7
P(price ↑)6%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
87.4%
80% range₹0-₹3
P(price ↑)0%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
96.8%
80% range₹0-₹1
P(price ↑)0%
P(price 2×)0%

HLVLTD price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HLVLTD simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HLVLTD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HLVLTD price target & forecast page.

HLVLTD Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HLVLTD scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

HLVLTD vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HLVLTD (this stock)3.0×-₹508 Cr
RELIANCE22.5×0.46%₹17.51L Cr
TCS14.0×3.15%₹7.35L Cr
HDFCBANK16.2×1.63%₹12.29L Cr
INFY13.5×4.80%₹4.06L Cr
ICICIBANK18.2×0.80%₹9.86L Cr
SBIN11.4×1.69%₹9.48L Cr

About Hlv Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Hlv Limited (HLVLTD) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹508 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the HLVLTD Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hlv Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HLVLTD analysis, FAQs

Is Hlv Limited (HLVLTD) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hlv Limited (HLVLTD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 3.0× earnings, ROE of 47.2%, a 6% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HLVLTD overvalued or undervalued?

HLVLTD trades at 3.0× earnings versus a peer median of 14.0×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the HLVLTD share price target for 2031?

HLVLTD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹0, with an 80% range of ₹0-₹1 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HLVLTD doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HLVLTD reaching ₹15 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for HLVLTD?

Trades at just 3.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.06×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. High return on equity (47.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.

What are the risks in HLVLTD?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 6% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on HLVLTD