Case study

HOMEFIRST

Home First Finance Company India Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +3.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

57Score

Home First Finance Company India Limited (HOMEFIRST) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HOMEFIRST a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Home First Finance Company India Limited (HOMEFIRST) trades at ₹1,194,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Home First Finance Company India Limited (HOMEFIRST) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.5× earnings, ROE of 15.7%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HOMEFIRST fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹12,479 Cr
Current price
₹1,194
P/E ratio
21.5×
P/B ratio
2.86×
Book value
₹418
Dividend yield
0.44%
ROCE
11.1%
ROE
15.7%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How HOMEFIRST ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for HOMEFIRST, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is HOMEFIRST overvalued? HOMEFIRST P/E vs peers

HOMEFIRST trades at 21.5× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

HOMEFIRST share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 5.4y of HOMEFIRST history (15%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HOMEFIRST 2027₹746₹1,238₹2,055+4%
HOMEFIRST 2028₹623₹1,284₹2,646+8%
HOMEFIRST 2029₹554₹1,331₹3,196+11%
HOMEFIRST 2030₹507₹1,380₹3,760+16%
HOMEFIRST 2031₹466₹1,431₹4,392+20%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HOMEFIRST goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,388 within 5 years

The bull case for HOMEFIRST

  • HOMEFIRST's P/E of 21.5x is lower than 60% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • HOMEFIRST's return on equity of 15.7% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,196.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹554.

HOMEFIRST volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 5.4 years HOMEFIRST compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹746-₹2,055, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HOMEFIRST price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 5.4 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.7%
80% range₹746-₹2,055
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.5%
80% range₹554-₹3,196
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
19.9%
80% range₹466-₹4,392
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)29%

HOMEFIRST price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HOMEFIRST simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HOMEFIRST hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HOMEFIRST price target & forecast page.

HOMEFIRST Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HOMEFIRST scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

HOMEFIRST MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HOMEFIRST with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox33.36%3.0×
Zerodha33.32%3.0×
Groww33.50%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.32%3.0×
Kotak Neo33.33%3.0×
Paytm Money37.30%2.7×
Pocketful33.72%3.0×
Anand Rathi33.32%3.0×
Bajaj Broking35.00%2.9×
Share India33.47%3.0×

Compare every broker on the HOMEFIRST MTF page.

About Home First Finance Company India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Home First Finance Company India Limited (HOMEFIRST) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹12,479 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the HOMEFIRST Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Home First Finance Company India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HOMEFIRST analysis, FAQs

Is Home First Finance Company India Limited (HOMEFIRST) a good buy?

On the numbers, Home First Finance Company India Limited (HOMEFIRST) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.5× earnings, ROE of 15.7%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HOMEFIRST overvalued or undervalued?

HOMEFIRST trades at 21.5× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the HOMEFIRST share price target for 2031?

HOMEFIRST's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,431, with an 80% range of ₹466-₹4,392 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HOMEFIRST doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HOMEFIRST reaching ₹2,388 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for HOMEFIRST?

HOMEFIRST's P/E of 21.5x is lower than 60% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. HOMEFIRST's return on equity of 15.7% ranks in the 74th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in HOMEFIRST?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on HOMEFIRST