Case study

IDBI

IDBI Bank

Worth a closer look1y model -10.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

IDBI Bank (IDBI) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is IDBI a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

IDBI Bank (IDBI) trades at ₹88,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.

On the numbers, IDBI Bank (IDBI) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.2× earnings, ROE of 14.2%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

IDBI fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹94,279 Cr
Current price
₹88
P/E ratio
10.2×
P/B ratio
1.37×
Book value
₹64
Dividend yield
2.40%
ROCE
6.5%
ROE
14.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is IDBI overvalued? IDBI P/E vs its sector

IDBI's P/E of 10.2× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.40% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

IDBI P/E
10.2×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
IDBI div yield
2.40%
Peer median yield
1.67%

IDBI share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IDBI history (-2%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
IDBI 2027₹41₹74₹133-11%
IDBI 2028₹29₹66₹152-21%
IDBI 2029₹21₹58₹161-30%
IDBI 2030₹16₹51₹164-38%
IDBI 2031₹12₹46₹168-45%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability IDBI goes up, or doubles?

40%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
28%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
10%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹166 within 5 years

The bull case for IDBI

  • Trades at just 10.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.37×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • A healthy 14.2% return on equity.
  • Pays a 2.4% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹161.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹21.

IDBI volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years IDBI compounded at -2%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹41₹133, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

IDBI price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.9%
80% range₹41–₹133
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
29.6%
80% range₹21–₹161
P(price ↑)33%
P(price 2×)9%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
44.6%
80% range₹12–₹168
P(price ↑)28%
P(price 2×)10%

IDBI price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
IDBI simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds IDBI hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the IDBI price target & forecast page.

IDBI Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IDBI scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

IDBI MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IDBI with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST37.9%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.9%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST37.9%2.6×

Compare every broker on the IDBI MTF page.

IDBI vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
IDBI (this stock)10.2×2.40%₹94,279 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About IDBI Bank: sector, index & market-cap context

IDBI Bank (IDBI) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹94,279 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the IDBI Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of IDBI Bank's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

IDBI analysis, FAQs

Is IDBI Bank (IDBI) a good buy?

On the numbers, IDBI Bank (IDBI) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.2× earnings, ROE of 14.2%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is IDBI overvalued or undervalued?

IDBI trades at 10.2× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the IDBI share price target for 2031?

IDBI's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹46, with an 80% range of ₹12₹168 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability IDBI doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of IDBI reaching ₹166 (2×) within 5 years is 10%.

What is the bull case for IDBI?

Trades at just 10.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.37×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A healthy 14.2% return on equity.

What are the risks in IDBI?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on IDBI