IDEA
Vodafone Idea
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Vodafone Idea (IDEA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IDEA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Vodafone Idea (IDEA) trades at ₹15,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 26/100.
On the numbers, Vodafone Idea (IDEA) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 26/100, weighing ROE of 10.0%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IDEA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
IDEA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IDEA history (-7%/yr drift, 53%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDEA 2027 | ₹6 | ₹12 | ₹24 | -20% |
| IDEA 2028 | ₹4 | ₹10 | ₹25 | -36% |
| IDEA 2029 | ₹2 | ₹8 | ₹25 | -48% |
| IDEA 2030 | ₹2 | ₹6 | ₹24 | -59% |
| IDEA 2031 | ₹1 | ₹5 | ₹22 | -67% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IDEA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IDEA
- Vodafone Idea is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹25.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 10.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2.
IDEA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years IDEA compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 53%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹6–₹24, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IDEA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IDEA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IDEA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IDEA price target & forecast page.
IDEA Piotroski F-Score: 2/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IDEA scores 2/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
IDEA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IDEA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 38.9% | 2.6× |
| Zerodha | 33.2% | 3.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 31.9% | 3.1× |
Compare every broker on the IDEA MTF page.
IDEA vs peers,Telecom comparison
About Vodafone Idea: sector, index & market-cap context
Vodafone Idea (IDEA) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Telecom sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.61L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the IDEA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Vodafone Idea's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IDEA analysis, FAQs
Is Vodafone Idea (IDEA) a good buy?
On the numbers, Vodafone Idea (IDEA) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 26/100, weighing ROE of 10.0%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IDEA overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for IDEA are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the IDEA share price target for 2031?
IDEA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5, with an 80% range of ₹1–₹22 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IDEA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IDEA reaching ₹30 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.
What is the bull case for IDEA?
Vodafone Idea is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in IDEA?
Return on equity is a soft 10.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.