Case study

RAILTEL

Railtel Corp of India

Tread carefully1y model -28.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Railtel Corp of India (RAILTEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is RAILTEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Railtel Corp of India (RAILTEL) trades at ₹324,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100.

On the numbers, Railtel Corp of India (RAILTEL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 55.4× earnings, ROE of 12.0%, a 24% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

RAILTEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹10,387 Cr
Current price
₹324
P/E ratio
55.4×
P/B ratio
6.03×
Book value
₹54
Dividend yield
0.88%
ROCE
16.2%
ROE
12.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is RAILTEL overvalued? RAILTEL P/E vs its Telecom

RAILTEL's P/E of 55.4× sits above the Telecom peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.88% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.88%.

RAILTEL P/E
55.4×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
RAILTEL div yield
0.88%
Peer median yield
0.88%

RAILTEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of RAILTEL history (-22%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
RAILTEL 2027₹129₹230₹417-28%
RAILTEL 2028₹72₹165₹382-48%
RAILTEL 2029₹43₹117₹327-63%
RAILTEL 2030₹27₹86₹279-73%
RAILTEL 2031₹16₹62₹228-81%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability RAILTEL goes up, or doubles?

24%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
5%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹639 within 5 years

The bull case for RAILTEL

  • A healthy 12.0% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹327.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 55.4× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 24% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹43.

RAILTEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years RAILTEL compounded at -22%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹129₹417, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

RAILTEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
28.1%
80% range₹129–₹417
P(price ↑)24%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
63.3%
80% range₹43–₹327
P(price ↑)10%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
80.6%
80% range₹16–₹228
P(price ↑)5%
P(price 2×)1%

RAILTEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
RAILTEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds RAILTEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the RAILTEL price target & forecast page.

RAILTEL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. RAILTEL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

RAILTEL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy RAILTEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST36.6%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST36.6%2.7×
DhanCHEAPEST36.6%2.7×

Compare every broker on the RAILTEL MTF page.

RAILTEL vs peers,Telecom comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
RAILTEL (this stock)55.4×0.88%₹10,387 Cr
BHARTIARTL40.7×0.83%₹11.69L Cr
IDEA-3.3×0.00%₹1.61L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr

About Railtel Corp of India: sector, index & market-cap context

Railtel Corp of India (RAILTEL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company in the Telecom sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,387 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the RAILTEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Railtel Corp of India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

RAILTEL analysis, FAQs

Is Railtel Corp of India (RAILTEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Railtel Corp of India (RAILTEL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 55.4× earnings, ROE of 12.0%, a 24% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is RAILTEL overvalued or undervalued?

RAILTEL trades at 55.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its Telecom peers.

What is the RAILTEL share price target for 2031?

RAILTEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹62, with an 80% range of ₹16₹228 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability RAILTEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of RAILTEL reaching ₹639 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for RAILTEL?

A healthy 12.0% return on equity.

What are the risks in RAILTEL?

A rich 55.4× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 24% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on RAILTEL