Case study

KNAGRI

KNAGRI

Tread carefully1y model -21.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

KNAGRI (KNAGRI) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KNAGRI a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

KNAGRI (KNAGRI) trades at ₹212,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100.

On the numbers, KNAGRI (KNAGRI) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100, weighing fairly valued at 16.7× earnings, ROE of 8.6%, a 31% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KNAGRI fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹529 Cr
Current price
₹212
P/E ratio
16.7×
P/B ratio
1.38×
Book value
₹154
ROCE
13.3%
ROE
8.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is KNAGRI overvalued? KNAGRI P/E vs its sector

KNAGRI's P/E of 16.7× sits above the sector peer median of 16.2×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers.

KNAGRI P/E
16.7×
Peer median P/E
16.2×
Peer median yield
1.65%

KNAGRI share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KNAGRI history (-13%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KNAGRI 2027₹89₹166₹307-21%
KNAGRI 2028₹54₹129₹310-39%
KNAGRI 2029₹36₹101₹297-52%
KNAGRI 2030₹23₹80₹272-62%
KNAGRI 2031₹15₹62₹251-70%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KNAGRI goes up, or doubles?

31%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
13%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
4%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹422 within 5 years

The bull case for KNAGRI

  • A 16.7× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.38×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹297.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 8.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 31% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹36.

KNAGRI volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years KNAGRI compounded at -13%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹89-₹307, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KNAGRI price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
21.4%
80% range₹89-₹307
P(price ↑)31%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
52.1%
80% range₹36-₹297
P(price ↑)19%
P(price 2×)4%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
70.5%
80% range₹15-₹251
P(price ↑)13%
P(price 2×)4%

KNAGRI price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KNAGRI simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KNAGRI hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KNAGRI price target & forecast page.

KNAGRI Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KNAGRI scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

KNAGRI MTF margin & leverage across 1 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KNAGRI with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 1 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Share IndiaCHEAPEST34.66%2.9×

Compare every broker on the KNAGRI MTF page.

KNAGRI vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KNAGRI (this stock)16.7×-₹529 Cr
RELIANCE22.7×0.46%₹17.65L Cr
TCS14.5×3.06%₹7.57L Cr
HDFCBANK16.2×1.62%₹12.34L Cr
INFY14.1×4.58%₹4.25L Cr
ICICIBANK18.7×0.78%₹10.12L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.60L Cr

About KNAGRI: sector, index & market-cap context

KNAGRI (KNAGRI) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹529 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the KNAGRI Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of KNAGRI's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KNAGRI analysis, FAQs

Is KNAGRI (KNAGRI) a good buy?

On the numbers, KNAGRI (KNAGRI) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100, weighing fairly valued at 16.7× earnings, ROE of 8.6%, a 31% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KNAGRI overvalued or undervalued?

KNAGRI trades at 16.7× earnings versus a peer median of 16.2×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the KNAGRI share price target for 2031?

KNAGRI's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹62, with an 80% range of ₹15-₹251 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KNAGRI doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KNAGRI reaching ₹422 (2×) within 5 years is 4%.

What is the bull case for KNAGRI?

A 16.7× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Low price-to-book of 1.38×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in KNAGRI?

Return on equity is a soft 8.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 31% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on KNAGRI