Case study

KRN

KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration

Tread carefully1y model +50.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration (KRN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KRN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration (KRN) trades at ₹1,224,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100.

On the numbers, KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration (KRN) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing expensive at 105.0× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 77% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KRN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹8,029 Cr
Current price
₹1,224
P/E ratio
105.0×
P/B ratio
13.25×
Book value
₹92
ROCE
16.1%
ROE
14.3%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is KRN overvalued? KRN P/E vs its sector

KRN's P/E of 105.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

KRN P/E
105.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

KRN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.7y of KRN history (56%/yr drift, 56%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KRN 2027₹900₹1,861₹3,790+51%
KRN 2028₹1,000₹2,783₹7,571+125%
KRN 2029₹1,183₹4,219₹14,410+242%
KRN 2030₹1,461₹6,241₹25,991+405%
KRN 2031₹1,865₹9,396₹46,367+661%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KRN goes up, or doubles?

77%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
95%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
85%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,470 within 5 years

The bull case for KRN

  • A healthy 14.3% return on equity.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 77% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,861 (+51%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹14,410.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 105.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 13.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • High historical volatility (56%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,183.

KRN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.7 years KRN compounded at 56%/year with annualized volatility of 56%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹900₹3,790, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KRN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
50.7%
80% range₹900–₹3,790
P(price ↑)77%
P(price 2×)31%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
241.6%
80% range₹1,183–₹14,410
P(price ↑)89%
P(price 2×)70%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
660.7%
80% range₹1,865–₹46,367
P(price ↑)95%
P(price 2×)85%

KRN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KRN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KRN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KRN price target & forecast page.

KRN Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KRN scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

KRN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KRN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
GrowwCHEAPEST38.5%2.6×

Compare every broker on the KRN MTF page.

KRN vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KRN (this stock)105.0×₹8,029 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration: sector, index & market-cap context

KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration (KRN) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹8,029 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the KRN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KRN analysis, FAQs

Is KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration (KRN) a good buy?

On the numbers, KRN Heat Exchanger And Refrigeration (KRN) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing expensive at 105.0× earnings, ROE of 14.3%, a 77% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KRN overvalued or undervalued?

KRN trades at 105.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the KRN share price target for 2031?

KRN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹9,396, with an 80% range of ₹1,865₹46,367 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KRN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KRN reaching ₹2,470 (2×) within 5 years is 85%.

What is the bull case for KRN?

A healthy 14.3% return on equity. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 77% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,861 (+51%).

What are the risks in KRN?

A rich 105.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 13.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.

More on KRN