Case study

MGEL

MGEL

Worth a closer look1y model +6.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

MGEL (MGEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MGEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MGEL (MGEL) trades at ₹16,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.

On the numbers, MGEL (MGEL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.2× earnings, ROE of 16.2%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MGEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹518 Cr
Current price
₹16
P/E ratio
14.2×
P/B ratio
2.09×
Book value
₹8
Dividend yield
0.06%
ROCE
16.8%
ROE
16.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MGEL overvalued? MGEL P/E vs its sector

MGEL's P/E of 14.2× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.06% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

MGEL P/E
14.2×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
MGEL div yield
0.06%
Peer median yield
1.65%

MGEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MGEL history (22%/yr drift, 55%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MGEL 2027₹8₹17₹35+7%
MGEL 2028₹7₹18₹49+15%
MGEL 2029₹6₹19₹68+23%
MGEL 2030₹5₹21₹87+31%
MGEL 2031₹4₹22₹111+40%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MGEL goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
61%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
38%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹32 within 5 years

The bull case for MGEL

  • Trades at just 14.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • A healthy 16.2% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹68.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹6.

MGEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MGEL compounded at 22%/year with annualized volatility of 55%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹8₹35, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MGEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.9%
80% range₹8–₹35
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)13%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
22.7%
80% range₹6–₹68
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)31%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
39.8%
80% range₹4–₹111
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)38%

MGEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MGEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MGEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MGEL price target & forecast page.

MGEL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MGEL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MGEL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MGEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the MGEL MTF page.

MGEL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MGEL (this stock)14.2×0.06%₹518 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About MGEL: sector, index & market-cap context

MGEL (MGEL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹518 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the MGEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MGEL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MGEL analysis, FAQs

Is MGEL (MGEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, MGEL (MGEL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.2× earnings, ROE of 16.2%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MGEL overvalued or undervalued?

MGEL trades at 14.2× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the MGEL share price target for 2031?

MGEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹22, with an 80% range of ₹4₹111 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MGEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MGEL reaching ₹32 (2×) within 5 years is 38%.

What is the bull case for MGEL?

Trades at just 14.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 16.2% return on equity.

What are the risks in MGEL?

High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on MGEL