Case study

MOTILALOFS

Motilal Oswal Fin

Tread carefully1y model +9.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Motilal Oswal Fin (MOTILALOFS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MOTILALOFS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Motilal Oswal Fin (MOTILALOFS) trades at ₹949,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100.

On the numbers, Motilal Oswal Fin (MOTILALOFS) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100, weighing premium at 30.5× earnings, ROE of 15.6%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MOTILALOFS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹57,093 Cr
Current price
₹949
P/E ratio
30.5×
P/B ratio
4.43×
Book value
₹214
Dividend yield
0.63%
ROCE
12.6%
ROE
15.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MOTILALOFS overvalued? MOTILALOFS P/E vs its sector

MOTILALOFS's P/E of 30.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.63% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

MOTILALOFS P/E
30.5×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
MOTILALOFS div yield
0.63%
Peer median yield
1.65%

MOTILALOFS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MOTILALOFS history (20%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MOTILALOFS 2027₹578₹1,039₹1,857+9%
MOTILALOFS 2028₹494₹1,128₹2,635+18%
MOTILALOFS 2029₹441₹1,233₹3,423+29%
MOTILALOFS 2030₹409₹1,348₹4,420+41%
MOTILALOFS 2031₹390₹1,467₹5,538+54%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MOTILALOFS goes up, or doubles?

57%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
66%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
40%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,907 within 5 years

The bull case for MOTILALOFS

  • A healthy 15.6% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,423.

The bear case & risks

  • At 30.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹441.

MOTILALOFS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MOTILALOFS compounded at 20%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹578₹1,857, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MOTILALOFS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.0%
80% range₹578–₹1,857
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
29.3%
80% range₹441–₹3,423
P(price ↑)63%
P(price 2×)29%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
53.9%
80% range₹390–₹5,538
P(price ↑)66%
P(price 2×)40%

MOTILALOFS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MOTILALOFS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MOTILALOFS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MOTILALOFS price target & forecast page.

MOTILALOFS Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MOTILALOFS scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MOTILALOFS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MOTILALOFS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.7%2.8×
Zerodha30.4%3.3×
DhanCHEAPEST28.7%3.5×

Compare every broker on the MOTILALOFS MTF page.

MOTILALOFS vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MOTILALOFS (this stock)30.5×0.63%₹57,093 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Motilal Oswal Fin: sector, index & market-cap context

Motilal Oswal Fin (MOTILALOFS) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹57,093 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the MOTILALOFS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Motilal Oswal Fin's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MOTILALOFS analysis, FAQs

Is Motilal Oswal Fin (MOTILALOFS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Motilal Oswal Fin (MOTILALOFS) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100, weighing premium at 30.5× earnings, ROE of 15.6%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MOTILALOFS overvalued or undervalued?

MOTILALOFS trades at 30.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the MOTILALOFS share price target for 2031?

MOTILALOFS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,467, with an 80% range of ₹390₹5,538 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MOTILALOFS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MOTILALOFS reaching ₹1,907 (2×) within 5 years is 40%.

What is the bull case for MOTILALOFS?

A healthy 15.6% return on equity.

What are the risks in MOTILALOFS?

At 30.5× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on MOTILALOFS