Case study

MOTILALOFS

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Tread carefully1y model +1.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

42Score

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOTILALOFS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MOTILALOFS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOTILALOFS) trades at ₹870,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100.

On the numbers, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOTILALOFS) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100, weighing premium at 26.5× earnings, ROE of 15.5%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MOTILALOFS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹52,387 Cr
Current price
₹870
P/E ratio
26.5×
P/B ratio
4.07×
Book value
₹214
Dividend yield
0.69%
ROCE
12.7%
ROE
15.5%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How MOTILALOFS ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is MOTILALOFS overvalued? MOTILALOFS P/E vs peers

MOTILALOFS trades at 26.5× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

MOTILALOFS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of MOTILALOFS history (20%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MOTILALOFS 2027₹496₹882₹1,568+1%
MOTILALOFS 2028₹385₹894₹2,073+3%
MOTILALOFS 2029₹328₹906₹2,500+4%
MOTILALOFS 2030₹286₹918₹2,941+5%
MOTILALOFS 2031₹252₹930₹3,439+7%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MOTILALOFS goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
53%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,740 within 5 years

The bull case for MOTILALOFS

  • MOTILALOFS's return on equity of 15.5% ranks in the 73rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,500.

The bear case & risks

  • MOTILALOFS's P/E of 26.5x is lower than 51% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹328.

MOTILALOFS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years MOTILALOFS compounded at 20%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹496-₹1,568, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MOTILALOFS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.3%
80% range₹496-₹1,568
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)7%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.1%
80% range₹328-₹2,500
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
6.9%
80% range₹252-₹3,439
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)27%

MOTILALOFS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MOTILALOFS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MOTILALOFS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MOTILALOFS price target & forecast page.

MOTILALOFS Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. MOTILALOFS scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

MOTILALOFS MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MOTILALOFS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox31.52%3.2×
Zerodha29.80%3.4×
Groww29.92%3.3×
DhanCHEAPEST27.97%3.6×
Kotak Neo30.03%3.3×
Paytm Money28.32%3.5×
Pocketful35.19%2.8×
Anand Rathi34.97%2.9×
Bajaj Broking37.00%2.7×
Share India35.12%2.8×

Compare every broker on the MOTILALOFS MTF page.

About Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOTILALOFS) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹52,387 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the MOTILALOFS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MOTILALOFS analysis, FAQs

Is Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOTILALOFS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOTILALOFS) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 42/100, weighing premium at 26.5× earnings, ROE of 15.5%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MOTILALOFS overvalued or undervalued?

MOTILALOFS trades at 26.5× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the MOTILALOFS share price target for 2031?

MOTILALOFS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹930, with an 80% range of ₹252-₹3,439 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MOTILALOFS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MOTILALOFS reaching ₹1,740 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for MOTILALOFS?

MOTILALOFS's return on equity of 15.5% ranks in the 73rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in MOTILALOFS?

MOTILALOFS's P/E of 26.5x is lower than 51% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on MOTILALOFS