NRAIL
NRAIL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NRAIL (NRAIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
What the numbers say about NRAIL, and the method behind each one.
NRAIL (NRAIL) trades at ₹504,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, NRAIL (NRAIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.0× earnings, ROE of 6.0%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NRAIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How NRAIL ranks against the 3,124 companies in our screener
- NRAIL's market cap of 855 Cr ranks in the 49th percentile of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026.
- NRAIL's book value of ₹479 ranks in the 91st percentile of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026.
- NRAIL's promoter holding of 74.3% ranks in the 89th percentile of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026.
- NRAIL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -22.0% ranks in the 11th percentile of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026.
- NRAIL's 3-year revenue growth of 7.0% ranks in the 39th percentile of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026.
- NRAIL's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.01x is lower than 15% of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026.
Is NRAIL overvalued? NRAIL P/E vs peers
NRAIL trades at 13.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
NRAIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.2y of NRAIL history (8%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRAIL 2027 | ₹274 | ₹508 | ₹944 | -0% |
| NRAIL 2028 | ₹215 | ₹506 | ₹1,194 | -1% |
| NRAIL 2029 | ₹176 | ₹505 | ₹1,449 | -1% |
| NRAIL 2030 | ₹148 | ₹503 | ₹1,704 | -1% |
| NRAIL 2031 | ₹126 | ₹501 | ₹1,997 | -2% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NRAIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NRAIL
- NRAIL's P/E of 13.0x is lower than 74% of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026.
- Low price-to-book of 1.05×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,449.
The bear case & risks
- NRAIL's return on equity of 6.0% ranks in the 33rd percentile of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026.
- High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹176.
NRAIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.2 years NRAIL compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹274-₹944, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NRAIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NRAIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NRAIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NRAIL price target & forecast page.
NRAIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NRAIL scores 4/8, mixed financial health.
NRAIL MTF margin & leverage across 1 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NRAIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 1 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Share IndiaCHEAPEST | 36.96% | 2.7× |
Compare every broker on the NRAIL MTF page.
About NRAIL: sector, index & market-cap context
NRAIL (NRAIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹855 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the NRAIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NRAIL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NRAIL analysis, FAQs
Is NRAIL (NRAIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, NRAIL (NRAIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.0× earnings, ROE of 6.0%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NRAIL overvalued or undervalued?
NRAIL trades at 13.0× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the NRAIL share price target for 2031?
NRAIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹501, with an 80% range of ₹126-₹1,997 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NRAIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NRAIL reaching ₹1,020 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.
What is the bull case for NRAIL?
NRAIL's P/E of 13.0x is lower than 74% of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 1.05×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in NRAIL?
NRAIL's return on equity of 6.0% ranks in the 33rd percentile of the 3,124 NSE companies in our screener, as of 18 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
More on NRAIL
For information and education only. Downstox is a data and analytics platform, not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Any scores, ranks, targets or scenarios are model estimates shown with their method, not forecasts or assured outcomes. Markets carry risk; do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.