NRL
NRL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NRL (NRL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NRL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
NRL (NRL) trades at ₹83,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 14/100.
On the numbers, NRL (NRL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 14/100, weighing expensive at 40.5× earnings, ROE of 11.3%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NRL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NRL overvalued? NRL P/E vs its sector
NRL's P/E of 40.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
NRL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NRL history (-4%/yr drift, 50%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRL 2027 | ₹35 | ₹68 | ₹128 | -15% |
| NRL 2028 | ₹23 | ₹57 | ₹144 | -29% |
| NRL 2029 | ₹16 | ₹48 | ₹144 | -40% |
| NRL 2030 | ₹11 | ₹41 | ₹143 | -49% |
| NRL 2031 | ₹8 | ₹34 | ₹142 | -57% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NRL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NRL
- NRL is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹144.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 40.5× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 11.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹16.
NRL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NRL compounded at -4%/year with annualized volatility of 50%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹35–₹128, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NRL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NRL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NRL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NRL price target & forecast page.
NRL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NRL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
NRL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NRL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 50.0% | 2.0× |
Compare every broker on the NRL MTF page.
NRL vs peers,sector comparison
About NRL: sector, index & market-cap context
NRL (NRL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹576 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the NRL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NRL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NRL analysis, FAQs
Is NRL (NRL) a good buy?
On the numbers, NRL (NRL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 14/100, weighing expensive at 40.5× earnings, ROE of 11.3%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NRL overvalued or undervalued?
NRL trades at 40.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the NRL share price target for 2031?
NRL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹34, with an 80% range of ₹8–₹142 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NRL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NRL reaching ₹159 (2×) within 5 years is 8%.
What is the bull case for NRL?
NRL is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in NRL?
A rich 40.5× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 11.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.