PAKKA
Pakka Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Pakka Limited (PAKKA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is PAKKA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Pakka Limited (PAKKA) trades at ₹82,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100.
On the numbers, Pakka Limited (PAKKA) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 58.9× earnings, ROE of 11.1%, a 7% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
PAKKA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is PAKKA overvalued? PAKKA P/E vs its sector
PAKKA's P/E of 58.9× sits above the sector peer median of 16.2×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
PAKKA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of PAKKA history (-58%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAKKA 2027 | ₹22 | ₹40 | ₹73 | -50% |
| PAKKA 2028 | ₹9 | ₹20 | ₹47 | -75% |
| PAKKA 2029 | ₹4 | ₹10 | ₹29 | -87% |
| PAKKA 2030 | ₹2 | ₹5 | ₹17 | -94% |
| PAKKA 2031 | ₹1 | ₹3 | ₹10 | -97% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability PAKKA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for PAKKA
- Low price-to-book of 0.82×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹29.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 58.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 11.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 7% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹4.
PAKKA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years PAKKA compounded at -58%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹22-₹73, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
PAKKA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
PAKKA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds PAKKA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the PAKKA price target & forecast page.
PAKKA Piotroski F-Score: 5/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. PAKKA scores 5/9,mixed financial health.
PAKKA vs peers,sector comparison
About Pakka Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Pakka Limited (PAKKA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹390 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the PAKKA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Pakka Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
PAKKA analysis, FAQs
Is Pakka Limited (PAKKA) a good buy?
On the numbers, Pakka Limited (PAKKA) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 58.9× earnings, ROE of 11.1%, a 7% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is PAKKA overvalued or undervalued?
PAKKA trades at 58.9× earnings versus a peer median of 16.2×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the PAKKA share price target for 2031?
PAKKA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3, with an 80% range of ₹1-₹10 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability PAKKA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of PAKKA reaching ₹160 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for PAKKA?
Low price-to-book of 0.82×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in PAKKA?
A rich 58.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 11.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 7% chance of finishing above today's price.