Case study

PNGJL

P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +2.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

68Score

P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited (PNGJL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is PNGJL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited (PNGJL) trades at ₹643,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100.

On the numbers, P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited (PNGJL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.1× earnings, ROE of 23.4%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

PNGJL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹9,463 Cr
Current price
₹643
P/E ratio
21.1×
P/B ratio
4.43×
Book value
₹145
ROCE
20.9%
ROE
23.4%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How PNGJL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is PNGJL overvalued? PNGJL P/E vs peers

PNGJL trades at 21.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

PNGJL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.9y of PNGJL history (-11%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
PNGJL 2027₹400₹661₹1,092+3%
PNGJL 2028₹336₹680₹1,376+6%
PNGJL 2029₹290₹699₹1,685+9%
PNGJL 2030₹259₹719₹1,996+12%
PNGJL 2031₹238₹739₹2,292+15%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability PNGJL goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
56%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,286 within 5 years

The bull case for PNGJL

  • PNGJL's P/E of 21.1x is lower than 60% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • PNGJL's return on equity of 23.4% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • PNGJL's return on capital employed of 20.9% ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,685.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹290.

PNGJL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.9 years PNGJL compounded at -11%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹400-₹1,092, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

PNGJL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.9 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.8%
80% range₹400-₹1,092
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
8.7%
80% range₹290-₹1,685
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
15.0%
80% range₹238-₹2,292
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)27%

PNGJL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
PNGJL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds PNGJL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the PNGJL price target & forecast page.

PNGJL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. PNGJL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

PNGJL MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy PNGJL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha31.88%3.1×
Groww31.93%3.1×
Dhan31.88%3.1×
Kotak Neo34.97%2.9×
Paytm Money33.37%3.0×
PocketfulCHEAPEST31.72%3.2×
Fyers32.26%3.1×
Anand Rathi31.88%3.1×
Bajaj Broking35.00%2.9×
Share India31.92%3.1×

Compare every broker on the PNGJL MTF page.

About P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited (PNGJL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹9,463 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the PNGJL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

PNGJL analysis, FAQs

Is P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited (PNGJL) a good buy?

On the numbers, P N Gadgil Jewellers Limited (PNGJL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 21.1× earnings, ROE of 23.4%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is PNGJL overvalued or undervalued?

PNGJL trades at 21.1× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the PNGJL share price target for 2031?

PNGJL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹739, with an 80% range of ₹238-₹2,292 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability PNGJL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of PNGJL reaching ₹1,286 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for PNGJL?

PNGJL's P/E of 21.1x is lower than 60% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. PNGJL's return on equity of 23.4% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. PNGJL's return on capital employed of 20.9% ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in PNGJL?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on PNGJL