TREL
TREL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
TREL (TREL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TREL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
TREL (TREL) trades at ₹26,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.
On the numbers, TREL (TREL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.4× earnings, ROE of 2.9%, a 16% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TREL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is TREL overvalued? TREL P/E vs its sector
TREL's P/E of 17.4× sits above the sector peer median of 16.2×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.90% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.69%.
TREL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TREL history (-30%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREL 2027 | ₹11 | ₹18 | ₹29 | -32% |
| TREL 2028 | ₹6 | ₹12 | ₹24 | -53% |
| TREL 2029 | ₹3 | ₹8 | ₹20 | -68% |
| TREL 2030 | ₹2 | ₹6 | ₹16 | -78% |
| TREL 2031 | ₹1 | ₹4 | ₹12 | -85% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TREL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TREL
- A 17.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- Low price-to-book of 0.51×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹20.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 2.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 16% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹3.
TREL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years TREL compounded at -30%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹11-₹29, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TREL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TREL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TREL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TREL price target & forecast page.
TREL Piotroski F-Score: 5/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TREL scores 5/9,mixed financial health.
TREL vs peers,sector comparison
About TREL: sector, index & market-cap context
TREL (TREL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹644 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the TREL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of TREL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TREL analysis, FAQs
Is TREL (TREL) a good buy?
On the numbers, TREL (TREL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.4× earnings, ROE of 2.9%, a 16% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TREL overvalued or undervalued?
TREL trades at 17.4× earnings versus a peer median of 16.2×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the TREL share price target for 2031?
TREL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹4, with an 80% range of ₹1-₹12 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TREL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TREL reaching ₹52 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for TREL?
A 17.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. Low price-to-book of 0.51×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in TREL?
Return on equity is a soft 2.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 16% chance of finishing above today's price.