UCOBANK
UCO Bank
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
UCO Bank (UCOBANK) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is UCOBANK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
UCO Bank (UCOBANK) trades at ₹28,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.
On the numbers, UCO Bank (UCOBANK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.0× earnings, ROE of 8.5%, a 11% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
UCOBANK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is UCOBANK overvalued? UCOBANK P/E vs its sector
UCOBANK's P/E of 14.0× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.60% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
UCOBANK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of UCOBANK history (-36%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCOBANK 2027 | ₹12 | ₹18 | ₹28 | -35% |
| UCOBANK 2028 | ₹6 | ₹12 | ₹22 | -57% |
| UCOBANK 2029 | ₹4 | ₹8 | ₹17 | -72% |
| UCOBANK 2030 | ₹2 | ₹5 | ₹13 | -81% |
| UCOBANK 2031 | ₹1 | ₹3 | ₹9 | -88% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability UCOBANK goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for UCOBANK
- Trades at just 14.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 1.12×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹17.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 8.5%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 11% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹4.
UCOBANK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years UCOBANK compounded at -36%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹12–₹28, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
UCOBANK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
UCOBANK price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds UCOBANK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the UCOBANK price target & forecast page.
UCOBANK Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. UCOBANK scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
UCOBANK MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy UCOBANK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 31.6% | 3.2× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 31.6% | 3.2× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 31.6% | 3.2× |
Compare every broker on the UCOBANK MTF page.
UCOBANK vs peers,sector comparison
About UCO Bank: sector, index & market-cap context
UCO Bank (UCOBANK) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹34,597 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the UCOBANK Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of UCO Bank's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
UCOBANK analysis, FAQs
Is UCO Bank (UCOBANK) a good buy?
On the numbers, UCO Bank (UCOBANK) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.0× earnings, ROE of 8.5%, a 11% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is UCOBANK overvalued or undervalued?
UCOBANK trades at 14.0× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the UCOBANK share price target for 2031?
UCOBANK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3, with an 80% range of ₹1–₹9 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability UCOBANK doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of UCOBANK reaching ₹55 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for UCOBANK?
Trades at just 14.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.12×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in UCOBANK?
Return on equity is a soft 8.5%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 11% chance of finishing above today's price.