Case study

UJJIVANSFB

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited

Mixed signals1y model +4.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

49Score

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited (UJJIVANSFB) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is UJJIVANSFB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited (UJJIVANSFB) trades at ₹70,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited (UJJIVANSFB) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.1× earnings, ROE of 10.8%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

UJJIVANSFB fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹13,661 Cr
Current price
₹70
P/E ratio
15.1×
P/B ratio
2.00×
Book value
₹35
ROCE
7.7%
ROE
10.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How UJJIVANSFB ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold promoter holding or debt-to-equity ratio figures for UJJIVANSFB, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is UJJIVANSFB overvalued? UJJIVANSFB P/E vs peers

UJJIVANSFB trades at 15.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

UJJIVANSFB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 6.5y of UJJIVANSFB history (3%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
UJJIVANSFB 2027₹46₹73₹117+4%
UJJIVANSFB 2028₹39₹76₹149+9%
UJJIVANSFB 2029₹35₹80₹181+14%
UJJIVANSFB 2030₹32₹83₹215+19%
UJJIVANSFB 2031₹30₹87₹249+24%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability UJJIVANSFB goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
60%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹140 within 5 years

The bull case for UJJIVANSFB

  • UJJIVANSFB's P/E of 15.1x is lower than 74% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹181.

The bear case & risks

  • UJJIVANSFB's return on equity of 10.8% ranks in the 53rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹35.

UJJIVANSFB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 6.5 years UJJIVANSFB compounded at 3%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹46-₹117, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

UJJIVANSFB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 6.5 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.4%
80% range₹46-₹117
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
13.7%
80% range₹35-₹181
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
23.8%
80% range₹30-₹249
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)28%

UJJIVANSFB price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
UJJIVANSFB simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds UJJIVANSFB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the UJJIVANSFB price target & forecast page.

UJJIVANSFB Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. UJJIVANSFB scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

UJJIVANSFB MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy UJJIVANSFB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.28%3.0×
Groww33.33%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.28%3.0×
Kotak Neo33.33%3.0×
Paytm Money33.75%3.0×
Pocketful33.48%3.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST33.28%3.0×
Bajaj Broking34.00%2.9×
Share India33.29%3.0×

Compare every broker on the UJJIVANSFB MTF page.

About Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited (UJJIVANSFB) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹13,661 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the UJJIVANSFB Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

UJJIVANSFB analysis, FAQs

Is Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited (UJJIVANSFB) a good buy?

On the numbers, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited (UJJIVANSFB) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.1× earnings, ROE of 10.8%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is UJJIVANSFB overvalued or undervalued?

UJJIVANSFB trades at 15.1× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the UJJIVANSFB share price target for 2031?

UJJIVANSFB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹87, with an 80% range of ₹30-₹249 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability UJJIVANSFB doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of UJJIVANSFB reaching ₹140 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for UJJIVANSFB?

UJJIVANSFB's P/E of 15.1x is lower than 74% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in UJJIVANSFB?

UJJIVANSFB's return on equity of 10.8% ranks in the 53rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on UJJIVANSFB