Case study

CIPLA

Cipla

Tread carefully1y model -7.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Cipla (CIPLA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is CIPLA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Cipla (CIPLA) trades at ₹1,416,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100.

On the numbers, Cipla (CIPLA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing premium at 30.0× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

CIPLA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.14L Cr
Current price
₹1,416
P/E ratio
30.0×
P/B ratio
3.32×
Book value
₹426
Dividend yield
0.92%
ROCE
15.5%
ROE
11.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is CIPLA overvalued? CIPLA P/E vs its Pharma

CIPLA's P/E of 30.0× sits above the Pharma peer median of 30.0×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.92% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.51%.

CIPLA P/E
30.0×
Peer median P/E
30.0×
CIPLA div yield
0.92%
Peer median yield
0.51%

CIPLA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of CIPLA history (-5%/yr drift, 22%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
CIPLA 2027₹941₹1,252₹1,664-7%
CIPLA 2028₹775₹1,154₹1,723-15%
CIPLA 2029₹648₹1,064₹1,755-21%
CIPLA 2030₹563₹990₹1,745-27%
CIPLA 2031₹489₹907₹1,725-33%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability CIPLA goes up, or doubles?

36%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
21%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,704 within 5 years

The bull case for CIPLA

  • Relatively low volatility (22%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,755.

The bear case & risks

  • At 30.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 11.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹648.

CIPLA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years CIPLA compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 22%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹941₹1,664, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

CIPLA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.4%
80% range₹941–₹1,664
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
21.3%
80% range₹648–₹1,755
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
32.9%
80% range₹489–₹1,725
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)2%

CIPLA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
CIPLA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds CIPLA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the CIPLA price target & forecast page.

CIPLA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. CIPLA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

CIPLA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy CIPLA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox26.5%3.8×
Zerodha22.6%4.4×
Groww22.6%4.4×
DhanCHEAPEST22.0%4.5×

Compare every broker on the CIPLA MTF page.

CIPLA vs peers,Pharma comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
CIPLA (this stock)30.0×0.92%₹1.14L Cr
SUNPHARMA35.8×0.86%₹4.47L Cr
DIVISLAB68.7×0.44%₹1.80L Cr
DRREDDY25.7×0.62%₹1.08L Cr
LUPIN18.6×0.51%₹1.07L Cr
AUROPHARMA24.4×0.27%₹86,647 Cr
BIOCON175.0×0.12%₹68,224 Cr

About Cipla: sector, index & market-cap context

Cipla (CIPLA) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Pharma sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.14L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the CIPLA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Cipla's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

CIPLA analysis, FAQs

Is Cipla (CIPLA) a good buy?

On the numbers, Cipla (CIPLA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing premium at 30.0× earnings, ROE of 11.6%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is CIPLA overvalued or undervalued?

CIPLA trades at 30.0× earnings versus a peer median of 30.0×, so it screens richer than its Pharma peers.

What is the CIPLA share price target for 2031?

CIPLA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹907, with an 80% range of ₹489₹1,725 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability CIPLA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of CIPLA reaching ₹2,704 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for CIPLA?

Relatively low volatility (22%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in CIPLA?

At 30.0× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 11.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on CIPLA