LUPIN
Lupin
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Lupin (LUPIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is LUPIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Lupin (LUPIN) trades at ₹2,340,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100.
On the numbers, Lupin (LUPIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.6× earnings, ROE of 29.1%, a 76% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
LUPIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is LUPIN overvalued? LUPIN P/E vs its Pharma
LUPIN's P/E of 18.6× sits below the Pharma peer median of 30.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.51% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.51%.
LUPIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of LUPIN history (21%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUPIN 2027 | ₹2,040 | ₹2,815 | ₹3,879 | +20% |
| LUPIN 2028 | ₹2,105 | ₹3,341 | ₹5,281 | +42% |
| LUPIN 2029 | ₹2,251 | ₹4,003 | ₹6,973 | +70% |
| LUPIN 2030 | ₹2,488 | ₹4,727 | ₹8,965 | +101% |
| LUPIN 2031 | ₹2,727 | ₹5,613 | ₹11,429 | +139% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability LUPIN goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for LUPIN
- A 18.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- High return on equity (29.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (30.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 76% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,815 (+20%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹6,973.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,251.
LUPIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years LUPIN compounded at 21%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,040–₹3,879, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
LUPIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
LUPIN price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds LUPIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the LUPIN price target & forecast page.
LUPIN Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. LUPIN scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
LUPIN MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LUPIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.6% | 3.8× |
| Zerodha | 22.7% | 4.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the LUPIN MTF page.
LUPIN vs peers,Pharma comparison
About Lupin: sector, index & market-cap context
Lupin (LUPIN) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Pharma sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.07L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the LUPIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Lupin's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
LUPIN analysis, FAQs
Is Lupin (LUPIN) a good buy?
On the numbers, Lupin (LUPIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 76/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.6× earnings, ROE of 29.1%, a 76% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is LUPIN overvalued or undervalued?
LUPIN trades at 18.6× earnings versus a peer median of 30.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Pharma peers.
What is the LUPIN share price target for 2031?
LUPIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,613, with an 80% range of ₹2,727–₹11,429 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability LUPIN doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of LUPIN reaching ₹4,703 (2×) within 5 years is 63%.
What is the bull case for LUPIN?
A 18.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (29.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (30.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in LUPIN?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.