Case study

LUPIN

LUPIN LIMITED

Screens attractive1y model +7.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

79Score

LUPIN LIMITED (LUPIN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is LUPIN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

LUPIN LIMITED (LUPIN) trades at ₹2,364,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 79/100.

On the numbers, LUPIN LIMITED (LUPIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 79/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 28.7%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

LUPIN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.08L Cr
Current price
₹2,364
P/E ratio
18.2×
P/B ratio
4.81×
Book value
₹491
Dividend yield
0.76%
ROCE
29.9%
ROE
28.7%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How LUPIN ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is LUPIN overvalued? LUPIN P/E vs its Pharma

LUPIN's P/E of 18.2× sits below the Pharma peer median of 33.0×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.76% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.68%.

LUPIN P/E
18.2×
Peer median P/E
33.0×
LUPIN div yield
0.76%
Peer median yield
0.68%

LUPIN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of LUPIN history (3%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
LUPIN 2027₹1,855₹2,530₹3,452+7%
LUPIN 2028₹1,723₹2,708₹4,257+15%
LUPIN 2029₹1,651₹2,899₹5,092+23%
LUPIN 2030₹1,637₹3,104₹5,886+31%
LUPIN 2031₹1,618₹3,323₹6,823+41%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability LUPIN goes up, or doubles?

61%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
73%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹4,727 within 5 years

The bull case for LUPIN

  • LUPIN's P/E of 18.2x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • LUPIN's return on equity of 28.7% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • LUPIN's return on capital employed of 29.9% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,530 (+7%).
  • Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹5,092.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,651.

LUPIN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years LUPIN compounded at 3%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,855-₹3,452, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

LUPIN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.0%
80% range₹1,855-₹3,452
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
22.7%
80% range₹1,651-₹5,092
P(price ↑)68%
P(price 2×)13%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
40.6%
80% range₹1,618-₹6,823
P(price ↑)73%
P(price 2×)26%

LUPIN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
LUPIN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds LUPIN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the LUPIN price target & forecast page.

LUPIN Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. LUPIN scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

LUPIN MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LUPIN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox23.06%4.3×
Zerodha22.60%4.4×
Groww22.67%4.4×
Dhan22.00%4.5×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST20.00%5.0×
Pocketful26.50%3.8×
Fyers27.03%3.7×
Anand Rathi26.55%3.8×
Bajaj Broking22.00%4.5×
Share India26.62%3.8×

Compare every broker on the LUPIN MTF page.

LUPIN vs peers,Pharma comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
LUPIN (this stock)18.2×0.76%₹1.08L Cr
SUNPHARMA36.9×0.82%₹4.67L Cr
DIVISLAB73.7×0.36%₹2.20L Cr
DRREDDY30.4×0.68%₹97,824 Cr
CIPLA33.0×0.89%₹1.18L Cr
AUROPHARMA25.5×0.24%₹96,297 Cr
BIOCON95.5×0.12%₹69,482 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About LUPIN LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

LUPIN LIMITED (LUPIN) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Pharma sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.08L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the LUPIN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of LUPIN LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

LUPIN analysis, FAQs

Is LUPIN LIMITED (LUPIN) a good buy?

On the numbers, LUPIN LIMITED (LUPIN) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 79/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 28.7%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is LUPIN overvalued or undervalued?

LUPIN trades at 18.2× earnings versus a peer median of 33.0×, so it screens cheaper than its Pharma peers.

What is the LUPIN share price target for 2031?

LUPIN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,323, with an 80% range of ₹1,618-₹6,823 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability LUPIN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of LUPIN reaching ₹4,727 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for LUPIN?

LUPIN's P/E of 18.2x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. LUPIN's return on equity of 28.7% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. LUPIN's return on capital employed of 29.9% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in LUPIN?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on LUPIN