Case study

HCLTECH

Hcl Technologies Limited

Screens attractive1y model +7.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

80Score

Hcl Technologies Limited (HCLTECH) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HCLTECH a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hcl Technologies Limited (HCLTECH) trades at ₹1,357,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100.

On the numbers, Hcl Technologies Limited (HCLTECH) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.3× earnings, ROE of 23.8%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HCLTECH fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3.68L Cr
Current price
₹1,357
P/E ratio
20.3×
P/B ratio
4.90×
Book value
₹277
Dividend yield
3.98%
ROCE
30.4%
ROE
23.8%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How HCLTECH ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is HCLTECH overvalued? HCLTECH P/E vs its IT

HCLTECH's P/E of 20.3× sits above the IT peer median of 20.3×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 3.98% dividend yield is above the peer median of 3.12%.

HCLTECH P/E
20.3×
Peer median P/E
20.3×
HCLTECH div yield
3.98%
Peer median yield
3.12%

HCLTECH share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of HCLTECH history (12%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HCLTECH 2027₹1,025₹1,461₹2,082+8%
HCLTECH 2028₹967₹1,573₹2,559+16%
HCLTECH 2029₹929₹1,694₹3,090+25%
HCLTECH 2030₹906₹1,824₹3,674+34%
HCLTECH 2031₹889₹1,965₹4,341+45%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HCLTECH goes up, or doubles?

61%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
73%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
30%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,713 within 5 years

The bull case for HCLTECH

  • HCLTECH's P/E of 20.3x is lower than 62% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • HCLTECH's return on equity of 23.8% ranks in the 89th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • HCLTECH's return on capital employed of 30.4% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • HCLTECH's dividend yield of 4.0% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,461 (+8%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,090.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹929.

HCLTECH volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years HCLTECH compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,025-₹2,082, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HCLTECH price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.7%
80% range₹1,025-₹2,082
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
24.9%
80% range₹929-₹3,090
P(price ↑)68%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
44.8%
80% range₹889-₹4,341
P(price ↑)73%
P(price 2×)30%

HCLTECH price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HCLTECH simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HCLTECH hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HCLTECH price target & forecast page.

HCLTECH Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HCLTECH scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

HCLTECH MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HCLTECH with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox25.65%3.9×
Zerodha24.80%4.0×
Groww24.86%4.0×
Dhan22.50%4.4×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST22.12%4.5×
Paytm Money22.32%4.5×
Pocketful29.30%3.4×
Anand Rathi29.14%3.4×
Bajaj Broking23.00%4.3×
Share India29.21%3.4×

Compare every broker on the HCLTECH MTF page.

HCLTECH vs peers,IT comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HCLTECH (this stock)20.3×3.98%₹3.68L Cr
TCS16.5×2.61%₹8.87L Cr
INFY15.3×4.08%₹4.77L Cr
WIPRO14.0×5.87%₹1.86L Cr
TECHM30.1×3.12%₹1.60L Cr
PERSISTENT43.4×0.73%₹86,368 Cr
COFORGE41.0×0.68%₹78,663 Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Hcl Technologies Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Hcl Technologies Limited (HCLTECH) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the IT sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.68L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the HCLTECH Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hcl Technologies Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HCLTECH analysis, FAQs

Is Hcl Technologies Limited (HCLTECH) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hcl Technologies Limited (HCLTECH) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.3× earnings, ROE of 23.8%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HCLTECH overvalued or undervalued?

HCLTECH trades at 20.3× earnings versus a peer median of 20.3×, so it screens richer than its IT peers.

What is the HCLTECH share price target for 2031?

HCLTECH's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,965, with an 80% range of ₹889-₹4,341 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HCLTECH doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HCLTECH reaching ₹2,713 (2×) within 5 years is 30%.

What is the bull case for HCLTECH?

HCLTECH's P/E of 20.3x is lower than 62% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. HCLTECH's return on equity of 23.8% ranks in the 89th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. HCLTECH's return on capital employed of 30.4% ranks in the 93rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in HCLTECH?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on HCLTECH