TECHM
Tech Mahindra
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Tech Mahindra (TECHM) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is TECHM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Tech Mahindra (TECHM) trades at ₹1,435,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100.
On the numbers, Tech Mahindra (TECHM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing premium at 28.1× earnings, ROE of 17.6%, a 45% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
TECHM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is TECHM overvalued? TECHM P/E vs its IT
TECHM's P/E of 28.1× sits above the IT peer median of 16.2×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 3.55% dividend yield is below the peer median of 4.03%.
TECHM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of TECHM history (0%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TECHM 2027 | ₹972 | ₹1,362 | ₹1,917 | -3% |
| TECHM 2028 | ₹808 | ₹1,311 | ₹2,115 | -7% |
| TECHM 2029 | ₹702 | ₹1,281 | ₹2,284 | -9% |
| TECHM 2030 | ₹620 | ₹1,238 | ₹2,436 | -12% |
| TECHM 2031 | ₹551 | ₹1,186 | ₹2,522 | -16% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability TECHM goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for TECHM
- A healthy 17.6% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (23.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 3.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,284.
The bear case & risks
- At 28.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹702.
TECHM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years TECHM compounded at 0%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹972–₹1,917, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
TECHM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
TECHM price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds TECHM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the TECHM price target & forecast page.
TECHM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. TECHM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
TECHM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy TECHM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 28.7% | 3.5× |
| Zerodha | 24.5% | 4.1× |
| Groww | 24.5% | 4.1× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 22.0% | 4.5× |
Compare every broker on the TECHM MTF page.
TECHM vs peers,IT comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| TECHM (this stock) | 28.1× | 3.55% | ₹1.41L Cr |
| TCS | 14.7× | 3.01% | ₹7.69L Cr |
| INFY | 14.4× | 4.51% | ₹4.32L Cr |
| HCLTECH | 17.7× | 4.78% | ₹3.07L Cr |
| WIPRO | 14.4× | 6.11% | ₹1.89L Cr |
| PERSISTENT | 39.7× | 0.72% | ₹76,699 Cr |
About Tech Mahindra: sector, index & market-cap context
Tech Mahindra (TECHM) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the IT sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.41L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the TECHM Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Tech Mahindra's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
TECHM analysis, FAQs
Is Tech Mahindra (TECHM) a good buy?
On the numbers, Tech Mahindra (TECHM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing premium at 28.1× earnings, ROE of 17.6%, a 45% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is TECHM overvalued or undervalued?
TECHM trades at 28.1× earnings versus a peer median of 16.2×, so it screens richer than its IT peers.
What is the TECHM share price target for 2031?
TECHM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,186, with an 80% range of ₹551–₹2,522 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability TECHM doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of TECHM reaching ₹2,819 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.
What is the bull case for TECHM?
A healthy 17.6% return on equity. Strong ROCE (23.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. Pays a 3.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in TECHM?
At 28.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.