Case study

ICICIPRULI

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance

Tread carefully1y model -12.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICIPRULI) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ICICIPRULI a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICIPRULI) trades at ₹506,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100.

On the numbers, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICIPRULI) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100, weighing expensive at 45.7× earnings, ROE of 12.6%, a 30% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ICICIPRULI fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹73,464 Cr
Current price
₹506
P/E ratio
45.7×
P/B ratio
5.38×
Book value
₹94
Dividend yield
0.33%
ROCE
10.1%
ROE
12.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is ICICIPRULI overvalued? ICICIPRULI P/E vs its Insurance

ICICIPRULI's P/E of 45.7× sits above the Insurance peer median of 19.5×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.33% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.05%.

ICICIPRULI P/E
45.7×
Peer median P/E
19.5×
ICICIPRULI div yield
0.33%
Peer median yield
1.05%

ICICIPRULI share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ICICIPRULI history (-10%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ICICIPRULI 2027₹319₹439₹604-12%
ICICIPRULI 2028₹244₹386₹603-23%
ICICIPRULI 2029₹195₹341₹593-32%
ICICIPRULI 2030₹159₹298₹560-40%
ICICIPRULI 2031₹129₹262₹535-48%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ICICIPRULI goes up, or doubles?

30%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
12%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,001 within 5 years

The bull case for ICICIPRULI

  • A healthy 12.6% return on equity.
  • Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹593.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 45.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 30% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹195.

ICICIPRULI volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years ICICIPRULI compounded at -10%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹319₹604, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ICICIPRULI price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
12.2%
80% range₹319–₹604
P(price ↑)30%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
31.9%
80% range₹195–₹593
P(price ↑)19%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
47.5%
80% range₹129–₹535
P(price ↑)12%
P(price 2×)1%

ICICIPRULI price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ICICIPRULI simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ICICIPRULI hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ICICIPRULI price target & forecast page.

ICICIPRULI Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ICICIPRULI scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

ICICIPRULI MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ICICIPRULI with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox27.9%3.6×
Zerodha23.8%4.2×
DhanCHEAPEST23.0%4.3×

Compare every broker on the ICICIPRULI MTF page.

ICICIPRULI vs peers,Insurance comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ICICIPRULI (this stock)45.7×0.33%₹73,464 Cr
HDFCLIFE67.8×0.35%₹1.30L Cr
LICI9.7×2.26%₹5.60L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr

About ICICI Prudential Life Insurance: sector, index & market-cap context

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICIPRULI) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Insurance sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹73,464 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the ICICIPRULI Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ICICIPRULI analysis, FAQs

Is ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICIPRULI) a good buy?

On the numbers, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICIPRULI) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100, weighing expensive at 45.7× earnings, ROE of 12.6%, a 30% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ICICIPRULI overvalued or undervalued?

ICICIPRULI trades at 45.7× earnings versus a peer median of 19.5×, so it screens richer than its Insurance peers.

What is the ICICIPRULI share price target for 2031?

ICICIPRULI's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹262, with an 80% range of ₹129₹535 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ICICIPRULI doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ICICIPRULI reaching ₹1,001 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for ICICIPRULI?

A healthy 12.6% return on equity. Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in ICICIPRULI?

A rich 45.7× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 30% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on ICICIPRULI