LICI
Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd.
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. (LICI) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is LICI a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. (LICI) trades at ₹394,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 88/100.
On the numbers, Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. (LICI) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 88/100, weighing inexpensive at 8.3× earnings, ROE of 37.8%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
The Downstox take on LICI
The puzzle with LICI is the gap between two stories the numbers tell. A P/E near single digits and a 37.8% ROE usually means either a cash machine the market trusts or a giant the market doubts can keep growing. The 2.26% yield and high ROCE suggest real earning power, yet the Piotroski score sitting at the middle of the scale hints the underlying quality trend is mixed. Watch whether margin and accrual quality firm up, since cheapness only rewards you if the franchise stays as strong as the ratios imply.
Downstox editorial view, written by our own analysts on 23 Jun 2026. The figures quoted were accurate then; see the live ratios above for today's numbers. Information, not investment advice.
LICI fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How LICI ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- LICI's market cap of 4.98L Cr ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- LICI's promoter holding of 96.5% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- LICI's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 17.0% ranks in the 52nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- LICI's 3-year revenue growth of 8.0% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold book value or debt-to-equity ratio figures for LICI, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.
Is LICI overvalued? LICI P/E vs its Insurance
LICI's P/E of 8.3× sits below the Insurance peer median of 24.2×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.54% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.45%.
LICI share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 4.2y of LICI history (-3%/yr drift, 26%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LICI 2027 | ₹305 | ₹421 | ₹583 | +7% |
| LICI 2028 | ₹283 | ₹451 | ₹716 | +14% |
| LICI 2029 | ₹273 | ₹482 | ₹849 | +22% |
| LICI 2030 | ₹265 | ₹515 | ₹1,001 | +31% |
| LICI 2031 | ₹263 | ₹551 | ₹1,156 | +40% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability LICI goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for LICI
- LICI's P/E of 8.3x is lower than 90% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- LICI's return on equity of 37.8% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- LICI's return on capital employed of 35.1% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- LICI's dividend yield of 2.5% ranks in the 91st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹421 (+7%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹849.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹273.
LICI volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 4.2 years LICI compounded at -3%/year with annualized volatility of 26%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹305-₹583, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
LICI price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
LICI price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds LICI hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the LICI price target & forecast page.
LICI Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. LICI scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
LICI MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LICI with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 29.41% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 24.20% | 4.1× |
| Groww | 24.22% | 4.1× |
| Dhan | 36.41% | 2.7× |
| Kotak Neo | 29.41% | 3.4× |
| Paytm Money | 29.45% | 3.4× |
| Pocketful | 27.91% | 3.6× |
| Anand Rathi | 29.41% | 3.4× |
| Bajaj Broking | 37.00% | 2.7× |
| Share India | 27.66% | 3.6× |
Compare every broker on the LICI MTF page.
LICI vs peers,Insurance comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| LICI (this stock) | 8.3× | 2.54% | ₹4.98L Cr |
| SBILIFE | 71.6× | 0.15% | ₹1.86L Cr |
| HDFCLIFE | 59.4× | 0.39% | ₹1.17L Cr |
| ICICIPRULI | 45.2× | 0.33% | ₹72,693 Cr |
| RELIANCE | 24.2× | 0.45% | ₹18.06L Cr |
| TCS | 16.5× | 2.61% | ₹8.87L Cr |
| HDFCBANK | 14.3× | 1.78% | ₹11.26L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd.: sector, index & market-cap context
Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. (LICI) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Insurance sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹4.98L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the LICI Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd.'s public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
LICI analysis, FAQs
Is Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. (LICI) a good buy?
On the numbers, Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. (LICI) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 88/100, weighing inexpensive at 8.3× earnings, ROE of 37.8%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is LICI overvalued or undervalued?
LICI trades at 8.3× earnings versus a peer median of 24.2×, so it screens cheaper than its Insurance peers.
What is the LICI share price target for 2031?
LICI's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹551, with an 80% range of ₹263-₹1,156 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability LICI doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of LICI reaching ₹788 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.
What is the bull case for LICI?
LICI's P/E of 8.3x is lower than 90% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. LICI's return on equity of 37.8% ranks in the top 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. LICI's return on capital employed of 35.1% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in LICI?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.