Case study

BEL

Bharat Electronics Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +11.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

60Score

Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is BEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) trades at ₹401,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.

On the numbers, Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 47.7× earnings, ROE of 27.4%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

BEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2.93L Cr
Current price
₹401
P/E ratio
47.7×
P/B ratio
12.23×
Book value
₹33
Dividend yield
0.62%
ROCE
36.4%
ROE
27.4%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How BEL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for BEL, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is BEL overvalued? BEL P/E vs its Defence

BEL's P/E of 47.7× sits above the Defence peer median of 35.5×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.62% dividend yield is below the peer median of 0.72%.

BEL P/E
47.7×
Peer median P/E
35.5×
BEL div yield
0.62%
Peer median yield
0.72%

BEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of BEL history (24%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
BEL 2027₹307₹445₹646+11%
BEL 2028₹293₹494₹832+23%
BEL 2029₹289₹548₹1,039+37%
BEL 2030₹291₹608₹1,271+52%
BEL 2031₹298₹675₹1,532+68%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability BEL goes up, or doubles?

64%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
79%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
39%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹802 within 5 years

The bull case for BEL

  • BEL's return on equity of 27.4% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • BEL's return on capital employed of 36.4% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹445 (+11%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,039.

The bear case & risks

  • BEL's P/E of 47.7x is lower than 28% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 12.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹289.

BEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years BEL compounded at 24%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹307-₹646, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

BEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
11.0%
80% range₹307-₹646
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
36.7%
80% range₹289-₹1,039
P(price ↑)74%
P(price 2×)22%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
68.4%
80% range₹298-₹1,532
P(price ↑)79%
P(price 2×)39%

BEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
BEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds BEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the BEL price target & forecast page.

BEL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. BEL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

BEL MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy BEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox25.27%4.0×
Zerodha24.50%4.1×
Groww24.54%4.1×
Dhan23.00%4.3×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST21.74%4.6×
Paytm Money21.91%4.6×
Pocketful28.93%3.5×
Fyers30.30%3.3×
Anand Rathi28.74%3.5×
Bajaj Broking24.00%4.2×
Share India28.81%3.5×

Compare every broker on the BEL MTF page.

BEL vs peers,Defence comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
BEL (this stock)47.7×0.62%₹2.93L Cr
HAL36.0×0.92%₹3.28L Cr
MAZDOCK35.5×0.72%₹1.01L Cr
COCHINSHIP55.8×0.49%₹39,980 Cr
RELIANCE24.2×0.45%₹18.06L Cr
TCS16.5×2.61%₹8.87L Cr
HDFCBANK14.3×1.78%₹11.26L Cr

Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026

About Bharat Electronics Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Defence sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹2.93L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the BEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Bharat Electronics Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

BEL analysis, FAQs

Is Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing expensive at 47.7× earnings, ROE of 27.4%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is BEL overvalued or undervalued?

BEL trades at 47.7× earnings versus a peer median of 35.5×, so it screens richer than its Defence peers.

What is the BEL share price target for 2031?

BEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹675, with an 80% range of ₹298-₹1,532 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability BEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of BEL reaching ₹802 (2×) within 5 years is 39%.

What is the bull case for BEL?

BEL's return on equity of 27.4% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. BEL's return on capital employed of 36.4% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹445 (+11%).

What are the risks in BEL?

BEL's P/E of 47.7x is lower than 28% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 12.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on BEL