HAL
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HAL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) trades at ₹4,910,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100.
On the numbers, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing premium at 36.0× earnings, ROE of 24.0%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HAL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How HAL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- HAL's market cap of 3.28L Cr ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HAL's book value of ₹614 ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HAL's promoter holding of 71.6% ranks in the 78th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HAL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 16.0% ranks in the 50th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HAL's 3-year revenue growth of 7.0% ranks in the 41st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for HAL, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is HAL overvalued? HAL P/E vs its Defence
HAL's P/E of 36.0× sits above the Defence peer median of 35.5×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.92% dividend yield is above the peer median of 0.72%.
HAL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 8.2y of HAL history (26%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAL 2027 | ₹3,595 | ₹5,382 | ₹8,057 | +10% |
| HAL 2028 | ₹3,330 | ₹5,900 | ₹10,455 | +20% |
| HAL 2029 | ₹3,191 | ₹6,468 | ₹13,109 | +32% |
| HAL 2030 | ₹3,156 | ₹7,090 | ₹15,928 | +44% |
| HAL 2031 | ₹3,132 | ₹7,772 | ₹19,287 | +58% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HAL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HAL
- HAL's return on equity of 24.0% ranks in the 89th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- HAL's return on capital employed of 32.0% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹5,382 (+10%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹13,109.
The bear case & risks
- HAL's P/E of 36.0x is lower than 38% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹3,191.
HAL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 8.2 years HAL compounded at 26%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,595-₹8,057, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HAL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HAL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HAL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HAL price target & forecast page.
HAL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HAL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
HAL MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HAL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 26.23% | 3.8× |
| Zerodha | 25.30% | 4.0× |
| Groww | 25.31% | 4.0× |
| Dhan | 24.00% | 4.2× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 22.73% | 4.4× |
| Paytm MoneyCHEAPEST | 22.73% | 4.4× |
| Pocketful | 29.81% | 3.4× |
| Fyers | 30.30% | 3.3× |
| Anand Rathi | 29.70% | 3.4× |
| Bajaj Broking | 25.00% | 4.0× |
| Share India | 29.52% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the HAL MTF page.
HAL vs peers,Defence comparison
| Stock | P/E | Div yield | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| HAL (this stock) | 36.0× | 0.92% | ₹3.28L Cr |
| BEL | 47.7× | 0.62% | ₹2.93L Cr |
| MAZDOCK | 35.5× | 0.72% | ₹1.01L Cr |
| COCHINSHIP | 55.8× | 0.49% | ₹39,980 Cr |
| RELIANCE | 24.2× | 0.45% | ₹18.06L Cr |
| TCS | 16.5× | 2.61% | ₹8.87L Cr |
| HDFCBANK | 14.3× | 1.78% | ₹11.26L Cr |
Fundamentals from Screener.in, as of 9 Aug 2026
About Hindustan Aeronautics Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Defence sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹3.28L Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the HAL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HAL analysis, FAQs
Is Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing premium at 36.0× earnings, ROE of 24.0%, a 61% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HAL overvalued or undervalued?
HAL trades at 36.0× earnings versus a peer median of 35.5×, so it screens richer than its Defence peers.
What is the HAL share price target for 2031?
HAL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹7,772, with an 80% range of ₹3,132-₹19,287 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HAL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HAL reaching ₹9,820 (2×) within 5 years is 37%.
What is the bull case for HAL?
HAL's return on equity of 24.0% ranks in the 89th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. HAL's return on capital employed of 32.0% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 61% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹5,382 (+10%).
What are the risks in HAL?
HAL's P/E of 36.0x is lower than 38% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.